Hedera (HBAR) enters May in a fragile but potentially explosive technical state, with cooling activity in the futures market and price movements closely tied to Bitcoin's momentum. The volume of HBAR futures remains muted, indicating a decrease in speculative interest compared to the beginning of the year.
Meanwhile, HBAR continues to track Bitcoin's performance with increased volatility. As Bitcoin approaches the $100,000 level and sentiment turns bullish, HBAR could either break key resistance levels and rise to $0.40 or face a deeper correction if technical support fails.
The low trading volume of HBAR futures indicates a decrease in speculation.
The volume of HBAR futures currently stands at $118 million, up from a recent low of $76 million on April 19 — the lowest point in the last three months.
This happens after a stable decline from much higher levels observed at the beginning of the year.
It's important to note that open interest in HBAR futures peaked at $1.3 billion on March 1, but has not exceeded $300 million since April 12, indicating a significant reduction in speculative activity surrounding the token. Hedera futures relate to derivative contracts that allow traders to speculate on the future price of HBAR, the native token of the Hedera network. Both retail and institutional participants often use these contracts to hedge risks or take leveraged positions.
Futures volumes and open interest are key indicators of market sentiment and liquidity — higher volumes typically indicate stronger confidence or increased trading activity. At the same time, declining metrics may reflect reduced interest or confidence in short-term price actions.
Current lower levels suggest that recent price movements of HBAR may have been more influenced by spot demand than by leveraged speculation.
The high correlation of Hedera with Bitcoin could drive the next increase.
HBAR has recently shown a high correlation with Bitcoin (BTC), often amplifying the movements of the crypto market leader.
When BTC rises, HBAR tends to rise even more sharply; conversely, HBAR often experiences deeper pullbacks during corrections. This pattern reflects Hedera's sensitivity to market sentiment and positioning as a higher beta asset in the crypto industry.
Accordingly, changes in Bitcoin's trajectory, especially during periods of strong momentum, can significantly impact HBAR's price dynamics. With Bitcoin up 13% in the last 30 days and currently only 6.3% below the $100,000 mark, the next stage of growth could have a strong influence on HBAR.
On-chain data shows a recovery of apparent demand for BTC, while institutional sentiment is gradually improving, with ETF inflows showing early signs of recovery. If Bitcoin breaks above $100,000, HBAR could benefit from new investments and growing market enthusiasm.
Given the tendency of HBAR to outperform BTC in bullish phases, a decisive breakout in Bitcoin could serve as a powerful catalyst for a broader move in Hedera.
Key levels to watch as HBAR faces a bullish breakout or death cross.
The price of HBAR faces a critical technical situation at the beginning of May, with potential for sharp movement in either direction. From the bullish perspective, if HBAR can attract strong buying pressure and establish a sustained upward trend, it could rise by 123% reaching $0.40.
To achieve this, the token must first break through a series of key resistance levels at $0.20, $0.258, $0.32, and $0.37 — each of which previously acted as a point of rejection during past rallies. A successful breakout through these levels may signal a revival of momentum and broader market confidence in Hedera.
However, downside risks remain relevant. HBAR's EMA lines show signs of approaching a 'death cross' — a bearish pattern where the short-term average drops below the long-term average, indicating a potential deeper correction.
If this formation is confirmed, HBAR may initially test support at $0.16. Failure to hold this level could lead to further losses down to $0.124, and in the event of a more aggressive decline, prices could fall to $0.0053.#Write2Earn #BinanceSquare #BinanceAlphaAlert #Binance #BitcoinDunyamiz $HBAR
