Bitcoin (BTC) enters May 2025 with renewed momentum, rising by over 14% in the last 30 days and trading just 6.3% below the key $100,000 mark. Behind the price changes is the apparent demand for bitcoin, which has turned positive for the first time since late February, indicating a change in on-chain behavior.
However, new inflows, particularly from US-based ETFs, remain subdued compared to 2024 levels, suggesting that institutional confidence has not fully returned. According to Tracy Jin, COO of MEXC, if current conditions persist, summer growth to $150,000 is possible, and sentiment is becoming increasingly bullish.
Growing visible demand for bitcoin, but new inflows are still absent.
The apparent demand for bitcoin has recently shown clear signs of recovery, rising to 65,000 bitcoins over the past 30 days. This indicates a sharp recovery from the minimum on March 27, when the apparent demand, defined as the net 30-day change in the holdings of all investor groups, reached a deeply negative level of -311,000 bitcoins.
Apparent demand reflects aggregated balance changes in wallets and provides insight into whether capital is entering or exiting the bitcoin network.
Although the current level of demand is still significantly lower than previous peaks in 2024, a significant turning point occurred on April 24: the apparent demand for bitcoin turned positive and remained positive for six consecutive days after nearly two months of sustained outflows. Despite this improvement, overall demand momentum remains weak.
The prolonged absence of significant new inflows suggests that much of the recent accumulation may have been driven by existing holders rather than new capital entering the market.
For bitcoin to achieve sustainable growth, both apparent demand and demand momentum must show consistent and synchronized growth. Until this alignment occurs, the current stabilization may not support a strong or prolonged price breakout.
Investment flows into spot bitcoin ETFs in the US are still significantly lower than the levels seen in 2024.
Bitcoin purchases by US-based ETFs have remained largely stable since late March, fluctuating between daily net flows of -5,000 to +3,000 bitcoins.
This level of activity sharply contrasts with the strong inflows observed in late 2024, when daily purchases often exceeded 8,000 bitcoins and contributed to bitcoin's initial rise to $100,000.
At this point in 2025, bitcoin ETFs have collectively accumulated a net total of 28,000 bitcoins, significantly lower than the over 200,000 bitcoins they had acquired at this time last year.
This decline shows a slowdown in institutional demand, which has historically been key in driving significant price movements. There are early signs of moderate recovery as ETF inflows have started to increase recently. However, current levels remain insufficient to support a sustainable upward trend.
ETF activity is often viewed as an indicator of institutional confidence, and a significant increase in purchases is likely to signal a restoration of trust in bitcoin's medium-term trajectory.
Until these inflows return in full, the broader market may struggle to generate the momentum needed for prolonged growth.
Bitcoin is approaching $100,000 as momentum builds, despite macroeconomic pressures.
The price of bitcoin has risen by over 14% in the last 30 days, significantly recovering from a drop below $75,000 in April.
This renewed momentum comes as BTC demonstrates relative resilience amid broader macroeconomic volatility and pressure driven by policies, including Trump’s tariff measures that have impacted risk assets.
While the entire crypto market has felt this impact, bitcoin seems to be somewhat separating itself, demonstrating less sensitivity to these external shocks than other digital assets. BTC is currently only 6.3% below the $100,000 mark and remains less than 17% from a potential move to $110,000. According to Tracy Jin, COO of MEXC, sentiment is becoming positive again.
"Beyond immediate price changes, the growing institutional appetite and supply reduction mechanisms amid macroeconomic uncertainty indicate a structural change in bitcoin's role in the global financial market. BTC is being used as a hedge against inflation and fiat financial models. Its liquidity, scalability, programmability, and global accessibility offer a reliable modern alternative to traditional financial instruments for many corporations," Jin said.
According to Jin, summer growth to $150,000 is possible. She emphasized that the range of $95,000 is likely to be the starting point for a decisive breakout above $100,000 in the coming days.
"If global trade tensions stabilize further, and institutional accumulation continues, summer growth to $150,000 is possible, potentially expanding to $200,000 by 2026. Overall, the external backdrop remains favorable for continued upward movement, especially considering the rise in stock indices on Friday, which could support bitcoin over the weekend," she noted.
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