Bitcoin’s price dipped below $94,000 on April 30 amid profit-taking and macroeconomic jitters, yet large-scale investors continue to accumulate, suggesting confidence in the cryptocurrency’s long-term trajectory despite near-term volatility.
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### Macroeconomic Jitters: U.S. GDP Decline Sparks Stagflation Concerns
Bitcoin slid to $93,919 following a surprise contraction in U.S. Q1 GDP, which fell -0.3% against expectations of +0.3% growth. The GDP Price Index surged to 3.7% — its highest since August 2023 — raising fears of stagflation (stagnant growth paired with high inflation). Meanwhile, March’s Core PCE inflation held steady at 2.6%, aligning with forecasts, but an upward revision to February’s data (3.0%) clouded Federal Reserve policy outlooks.
With recession odds for 2025 climbing to 67% (per Polymarket), investors appear cautious. Bitcoin’s struggle to breach the $95,000 resistance reflects this uncertainty, as markets weigh delayed rate cuts against inflation risks.
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### Profit-Taking Intensifies: $300M Sell-Off in Three Days
Data from Glassnode highlights escalating selling pressure, with Bitcoin’s spot volume delta plunging by over $300 million between April 26–29:
- April 26: -$16M
- April 27: -$30.9M
- April 28: -$76.1M
- April 29: -$193.4M
This aggressive profit-taking, marked by the steepest single-day outflow on April 29, aligns with Bitcoin’s rejection near $95,500. Declining spot volumes (7-day average) further signal weakening retail demand.
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### Whales vs. Retail: A Divergence in Strategy
While smaller investors sell, whale addresses (holding 10,000+ BTC) are doubling down. Glassnode’s accumulation trend score for whales nears 0.95 (on a 0–1 scale), reflecting robust buying activity. In contrast:
- Mid-tier holders (10–100 BTC): Score ~0.6
- Retail-tier (1–10 BTC): Score ~0.3
- Small wallets (<1 BTC): Score ~0.2
This split mirrors early bull market cycles, where institutional players build positions during retail sell-offs, anticipating prolonged upward momentum.
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### Profit-Taking Spike: A Stress Test for the Rally
Hourly realized profits surged to $139.9 million last week — 17% above the $120 million baseline — as traders capitalized on Bitcoin’s 30% rebound from April lows. Similar profit-taking phases in March 2024 and December 2020 preceded consolidation periods and eventual new highs, particularly when whale accumulation coincided with supportive macro trends. $BTC
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### Key Takeaways
1. Macro Pressures: Stagflation risks and Fed uncertainty are driving short-term volatility, but cooling PCE inflation offers a silver lining.
2. Whale Confidence: Persistent accumulation by large holders suggests institutional faith in Bitcoin’s long-term value.
3. Critical Levels: A sustained break above $95,000 could reignite momentum toward $100,000, while failure may extend consolidation.
Bitcoin’s next move hinges on macro data (upcoming U.S. jobs reports) and whale behavior. For now, the bull market’s resilience appears intact, with volatility offering strategic entry points for patient investors.
#BTC
