Bitcoin’s price dip under $94,000 on April 30 is testing the market’s conviction, following recessionary signals from U.S. GDP data and a surge in realized profits. While smaller holders are selling, whales remain in accumulation mode — hinting that the bull market may still be intact despite the short-term volatility.
US GDP Contraction Triggers Recession Fears, BTC Drops Below $94K
Bitcoin fell to $93,919 after the U.S. Q1 GDP showed a surprise contraction of -0.3%, versus an expected +0.3%. The GDP Price Index surged to 3.7%, its highest since August 2023, triggering concerns over stagflation. Meanwhile, Core PCE inflation for March landed at 2.6%, in line with expectations, but February’s revision to 3.0% added to uncertainty around future Fed policy moves.
These mixed inflation signals have left markets cautious. Odds of a 2025 recession hit 67%, according to Polymarket. This macro backdrop is a key reason for Bitcoin’s pullback near the $95,000 resistance level, as investors weigh potential rate decisions.
Bitcoin Sees $300M in Spot Volume Sell-Off Over 3 Days
Glassnode data reveals that BTC spot volume delta has dropped by more than $300 million since April 26, pointing to increased selling pressure:
April 26: -$16M
April 27: -$30.9M
April 28: -$76.1M
April 29: -$193.4M
This sharp negative delta reflects aggressive short-term profit-taking, often seen at market tops. The 7-day moving average of BTC spot volumes confirms weakening demand, especially as Bitcoin continues to stall below the $95K resistance.
Whales Accumulate as Retail Investors Sell
Despite the sell-off, whales — addresses holding over 10,000 BTC — continue to accumulate, with a Glassnode accumulation trend score near 0.95, signaling strong confidence from deep-pocketed players.
In contrast:
10–100 BTC holders: Trend score ~0.6
1–10 BTC holders: Trend score ~0.3
<1 BTC holders: Trend score ~0.2
This divergence shows that retail and mid-sized holders are taking profits, while whales are positioning for a longer-term uptrend — a pattern reminiscent of early-stage bull market cycles.
Realized Profits Spike — Market Faces “Profit-Taking Pressure Test”
The total realized profit surged to $139.9 million/hour last week, roughly 17% above the $120 million/hour baseline. This spike aligns with BTC’s recent rejection near $95,500, suggesting traders are cashing in on the 30% rally from April lows.
Still, this “profit-taking pressure test” may not mark the end of the rally. Similar behavior in past cycles — such as March 2024 and December 2020 — often preceded consolidation and new highs, particularly when whale accumulation and macro tailwinds were present.
Takeaway
Bitcoin’s reaction to weak GDP data and sticky inflation has triggered short-term selling, especially by retail holders. But whale accumulation, historical profit-taking patterns, and cooling PCE inflation offer a bullish longer-term backdrop.
If BTC manages to reclaim $95,000 and sustain above that level, a breakout toward $100,000 remains on the table. For now, all eyes are on macro data releases and whale wallet behavior as key directional indicators.
