Some say altseason is already here — you just don't see it. Others claim it won’t happen at all this cycle. As always, the truth lies in deep analysis. To truly understand where we are, we need to zoom out and think like a macro analyst, a trader, and a market historian — all at once.

Let’s dive in: what is a true altseason, why does it matter, and why haven’t we seen it yet in 2025?

1. What Is a Real Altseason?

Altseason isn't just about a few coins pumping. It’s a systemic rotation of capital from BTC and ETH into riskier crypto assets (mid- and low-cap altcoins), marked by:

  • Declining Bitcoin dominance,

  • Explosive growth in TVL and activity across alt L1s/L2s,

  • Total altcoin market cap outperforming BTC,

  • Euphoric retail participation and hype.

Historically, we saw altseasons in:

  • Q4 2017 — BTC topped out, and altcoins exploded 10x–100x;

  • Q1/Q2 2021 — DeFi, NFT, and L1 narratives drove massive rallies.

In 2025, nothing like that has happened yet.

2. Where Are We Now? Why This Isn’t It (Yet)

Yes, many altcoins have pumped 50–200%. But that’s not systemic. Instead, we’re seeing:

  • Isolated token rallies (based on narratives, not sector-wide momentum),

  • Speculative spikes around listings or hype,

  • Bitcoin dominance still above 50%,

  • Weak retail interest and volumes far below euphoric levels.

The Total3 chart (altcoin market cap excluding BTC & ETH) is still sluggish. TVL in DeFi is well below 2021 peaks. The ETH/BTC ratio is near multi-year lows — a classic sign that capital hasn’t rotated to alts yet.

3. The Key Reasons Altseason Hasn’t Started (Yet)

1. Institutional Capital Flows Only Into Bitcoin

  • The launch of BTC ETFs triggered the new bull cycle.

  • But alts were left out — no ETF for ETH yet, and none coming for alts anytime soon.

  • Institutions still don’t view altcoins as investable assets due to regulatory uncertainty and risk.

2. Tight Macro Conditions

  • The Fed hasn’t started cutting rates in 2025.

  • QT (quantitative tightening) continues — draining global liquidity.

  • The dollar (DXY) remains strong — putting pressure on risk assets.

3. Bitcoin Still in Its “Phase One”

  • BTC is leading the cycle. Historically, BTC rallies first.

  • Then, it consolidates — and only then capital rotates into ETH and alts.

  • So far, BTC dominance remains strong — no sign of that shift yet.

4. Retail Hasn’t Fully Returned

  • New user inflow to exchanges remains modest.

  • Google Trends, social media hype, and CEX traffic are far from 2021 peaks.

  • Retail is the main driver of altcoin manias — and it’s not fully back yet.

4. What Could Trigger a Real Altseason?

1. ETH ETF Approval

  • Would be a huge signal: ETH is not a security, it’s infrastructure.

  • Could open the door for altcoin ETFs (SOL, AVAX, XRP, etc.).

2. Fed Pivot: Pause or Rate Cuts

  • Altseasons thrive on excess liquidity.

  • Historically, major alt rallies began after the Fed paused or reversed tightening.

3. Bitcoin Enters Sideways or Correction Phase

  • Once BTC consolidates near highs or pulls back, capital hunts higher returns.

  • This starts with ETH, then top alts, then small/mid caps.

4. Emergence of Strong Narratives

  • Fresh themes like AI tokens, RWA, SocialFi, L3s, gaming, etc.

  • Narratives attract attention and speculative capital — especially if backed by funds and influencers.

5. History Doesn’t Repeat — But It Rhymes

  • In 2017, altseason hit ~2 months after BTC peaked.

  • In 2021 — it was 4 months after BTC broke out.

  • In 2025 — it’s been ~6 months since the BTC ETF rally.

The cycle is slower, but the pattern isn’t broken.

6. Bottom Line: Altseason Isn’t Canceled. It Just Hasn’t Begun Yet.

We’re still in phase one of the cycle. Altseason might hit:

  • In summer or fall 2025,

  • On the back of rate cuts and a Fed pivot,

  • Following ETH ETF approval,

  • After BTC cools off.

The expectations are rising. The question isn’t if — but when, and how strong it will be.