Discover the potential for a 20% decline in the Sui price as the network prepares to unlock tokens valued at approximately $296 million this week.
The $SUI price experienced significant growth in April, driven by the surge of meme coins within its ecosystem, more than doubling from its lowest point on April 7 to its peak last week.
However, these gains could be reversed as the network approaches a substantial token unlock scheduled for May 1, amounting to $296 million.
$296M SUI Tokens to Flood Ahead of May 1 Unlock Event
In the coming days, Sui may experience selling pressure as the network prepares to unlock 88.34 million tokens valued at $296 million on May 1.
This token release is part of a monthly schedule, during which over 50 million tokens are made available according to its vesting plan.
Most of the unlocked tokens will be allocated to Series B investors, who will receive 19.32 million tokens.
Additionally, 14 million tokens will be designated for staked subsidies, while the remaining tokens will be distributed among early contributors and the Mysten Lab Treasuries.
$SUI holders are likely to face dilution for several years, given that the circulating supply stands at 3.24 billion against a total supply of 10 million.
As depicted in the accompanying chart, the final Sui token unlock is anticipated to take place in May 2030.
A token unlock refers to the event when new coins are released into the market according to a predetermined vesting schedule.
This event is frequently perceived as bearish, as it increases the supply in the market, potentially impacting prices if demand does not match.
However, it is important to note that tokens do not necessarily decline in value before or after an unlock, as the vesting schedule is typically accessible to the public.
Consequently, investors may have already factored in the anticipated unlocks. For instance, the price of TRUMP surged following a $300 million token unlock earlier this month.
Sui Price Prediction & Top Down Analysis
Sui Token Price Weekly Analysis
The weekly chart indicates that the Sui token achieved a peak of $3.8690 this month, with these gains occurring last week alongside a surge in Bitcoin and most altcoins.
However, there are indications that the momentum is diminishing, as the token has retraced this week and is gradually forming an evening star candlestick pattern, characterized by a small body and upper and lower shadows.
Given that this is a weekly chart, confirmation will occur if the week concludes around the $3.5 mark.
Increased selling pressure due to token unlocks could lead to a decline to a low of $2.3436, which represents the highest swing from October of the previous year.
A weekly close above the $3.8690 high would negate the evening star pattern and suggest a bullish forecast for the Sui price, potentially reaching the psychological level of $5.
Sui Coin Price 4-Hour Chart Analysis
The four-hour chart presents a more concerning outlook for the $SUI price, having established what appears to be a double-top pattern at $3.811.
It has subsequently dipped slightly beneath the critical support level of $3.4120. Additionally, oscillators indicate a loss of momentum, with the Relative Strength Index falling below 50 and the Awesome Oscillator (AO) bars nearing a drop below the zero line.
A bearish momentum is typically validated when the RSI falls below 50 and the AO declines beneath zero.
Consequently, this chart indicates that the price of Sui coin could potentially decrease by a minimum of 20% in the short term, reaching $2.7377.
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