The crypto cycle tied to halvings is losing its relevance
A year has passed since the halving, and there is still no obvious bull run. Bitcoin has grown, but altcoins have not shown that alt season.
Now the growth is driven by institutions, ETFs and macro, and not by retail flows as before.
Previously the cycle looked like this:
⚪️ Bear market.
⚪️ Accumulation phase.
⚪️ BTC growth.
⚪️ The fall of BTC dominance and that very altseason.
The main factor was not cyclicality, but the influx of liquidity. As we can see, global liquidity is now hitting its ATH - this liquidity must go somewhere, and crypto is one of the main candidates.
We are already seeing BTC starting to follow the pattern of money supply, and liquidity is already flowing into crypto: BlackRock, Strategy and others have invested over $4 billion in the last week.
If the growth of liquidity continues, the market may shoot up sharply, regardless of the “old” cycles.
But there are also risks in the background that could flood the market in the short term. I think many have already heard about the possible war between India and Pakistan, where the situation is becoming more and more tense every day.
For example, Pakistan's information minister said last night that India plans to attack Pakistan within 24 to 36 hours.
Therefore, we advise you to monitor the situation, keep your finger on the pulse and, perhaps, close some risky positions with large leverage, since the markets can react sharply to such events.
