Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, warned of the imminent threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin (BTC). He cautioned that the risk is greater than many believe.
Thorn confirmed that while a quantum attack would affect all forms of public-key cryptography, and thus all cryptocurrencies, potential solutions to protect Bitcoin are not yet perfect.
How does quantum computing pose a threat to Bitcoin?
In this context, quantum computing threatens Bitcoin by breaking its cryptographic security. This includes elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) and hash functions like SHA-256. Quantum computers can extract private keys from public keys, allowing unauthorized access.
While quantum-resistant cryptography is being developed, the timeline for reaching a completely secure solution remains uncertain. Nevertheless, not everyone is convinced about the effectiveness of the solutions to protect Bitcoin.
Quantum poses a greater threat than people realize, and the options available to fix it specifically for Bitcoin are worse than people think," Thorn published.
When asked about the potential timeline for the emergence of this threat, Thorn admitted that no one knows for sure, making it one of the most challenging questions in the field.
He said, "This is a national security level question."
Thorn pointed out that by the time this happens, it will be too late to respond. His recent concerns have resonated with many.
Nate Gieraci, head of ETF Store, reiterated his previous stance. He pointed out that Bitcoin, like any other technology, has vulnerabilities that may emerge over time with advancements.
Gieraci added: "There is a non-zero possibility of Bitcoin being hacked. If it can be created, it can be destroyed."
Moreover, some have taken a stronger stance, predicting that quantum computing may eventually lead to a decline in the value of Bitcoin.
Analyst Nishant Bhardwaj commented: "The time to invest in Bitcoin was before 2020. I am currently conducting intensive research on Bitcoin-like assets."
Meanwhile, these concerns have increased due to recent developments in quantum technology. Shriraj Gaitani, founder and COO of Diamanti, recently confirmed that Google's quantum computers are now operating at about 241 million times the speed of traditional computers.
He said: "A quantum computer with just 4000 qubits could break Bitcoin's encryption in 10 minutes. By 2030, they will break Bitcoin's encryption in seconds."
Gaitani also points out that despite the risks associated with quantum computing, it offers tremendous opportunities. He identified five ways blockchain technology will transform by 2030.
Quantum-resistant cryptography: This involves developing secure encryption against quantum computers. The U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) is working on this.
Quantum-enhanced smart contracts: Quantum computing can enable smarter contracts that adapt in real-time to make independent decisions faster.
Quantum random number generation: Blockchain technology can use quantum randomness for secure voting, fair gambling, and tamper-resistant operations.
Quantum secure identity systems: Quantum computing can ensure unbreakable digital identities, protecting personal data and privacy.
Quantum-backed decentralized finance: Quantum computing can enhance decentralized finance through instant payments, advanced financial modeling, and real-time risk assessment.
"You need to start moving your assets to quantum-resistant systems now. Because by 2030, it will be too late," Gaitani warned.
Will Bitcoin survive quantum computing?
Despite the warnings, some remain optimistic. Earlier, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino predicted that quantum computing is unlikely to pose a significant threat to Bitcoin cryptocurrency in the near future.
It is believed that quantum-resistant addresses will be added to Bitcoin over time, long before any serious threat emerges.
Project 11, a quantum computing research company, also confirmed that quantum computers are not expected to pose a real threat to proof-of-work for at least 10 years.
According to the company, although Bitcoin is susceptible to future developments in quantum computing, it has the potential to evolve and survive through upgrades and technological adjustments.
The company stated that "Bitcoin is perfectly capable of withstanding quantum computing. It will be difficult and controversial, but the network can be upgraded over time. The last major fork was Taproot; the next step is post-quantum cryptography."
Project 11 in its X series pointed to the development of quantum-resistant algorithms to protect against attacks. It noted that the National Institute of Standards and Technology has developed several standards, including those based on networks and hashing.
Additionally, the company noted that there are multiple libraries available for implementing post-quantum cryptography (PQC). However, signature sizes, transactions per second (TPS), and block sizes could pose challenges.