#特朗普就职百日 understands that the leader has successfully put the American Empire into ICU, which is something ordinary people cannot achieve. The PCE has strengthened beyond expectations, with Q1 GDP at -0.3%. If policies do not shift, could Q2 GDP be negative? If discussions in Q2 do not reach an agreement, the technical indicators would align with recession.

High inflation + economic recession. How will the Federal Reserve choose? Currently, the unemployment rate has not risen, so I guess the Federal Reserve will retain the space for rate cuts, otherwise, once employment data explodes, there will be no way to save the market. Right now, it's about which side will blow up first to save the other. Price and employment are both KPIs, and currently, price is still prioritized, so in May the US stock market needs to apply pressure; if the stock market doesn't drop, companies won't lay off employees, and if companies don't lay off employees, the unemployment rate won't rise, which means the Federal Reserve won't cut rates.

Currently betting on rate cut expectations means watching which of the seven strong companies starts layoffs first; once layoffs begin, that's when the real speculation on rate cut expectations starts.