A key Bitcoin (BTC) metric that accurately predicted the 2022 market bottom has issued a fresh buy signal, suggesting that a new bull run may be underway.

MCI Hints at a New Bitcoin Bull Run

The Macro Chain Index (MCI) is a composite indicator combining long-term on-chain and macroeconomic data. It evaluates investor accumulation behavior, network activity, and supply dynamics to determine whether Bitcoin is undervalued or overvalued relative to its historical cycle.

A critical component of the MCI is the Relative Strength Index (RSI). In April, the MCI’s RSI crossed above its 52-week moving average—a historical signal marking the start of past bull cycles.

This same RSI pattern was seen:

  • In 2015, ahead of Bitcoin’s rise to $20,000

  • In 2019, before the rally to $65,000

  • In late 2022, just before BTC bottomed near $15,500

If history repeats, this April 2025 crossover could mark the beginning of another major Bitcoin rally, potentially pushing the price above the psychological $100,000 level.

“Our Macro Chain Index just issued its first buy signal since 2022—right at the bottom. With fundamentals aligned and market structure improving, this could be a significant inflection point,” said Alpha Extract, creator of the index.

Market Sentiment Shifts as Open Interest Surges

Bitcoin experienced a 32% correction after reaching a record high near $110,000 in January. The drop, largely triggered by geopolitical tensions and trade war fears, drove BTC to a local low of around $74,450 in early April. Since then, it has rebounded strongly to about $95,650, even as U.S. equities remain under pressure.

One key driver of this recovery is the futures market:

  • Open interest (OI) on Binance fell from $11.9B to $7.5B between January and April, signaling declining leverage and caution.

  • Since mid-April, OI has climbed by 29.3%, now sitting at $9.7B, showing renewed trader confidence and appetite for long positions.

Moreover, funding rates have remained mostly positive—another bullish sign, indicating that traders are paying a premium to hold long positions, expecting prices to rise.

Outlook

The combination of technical signals from the MCI, rising futures activity, and improving sentiment suggests that $BTC may be entering a renewed bullish phase. While risks remain, the data indicates that momentum is building toward another attempt at the $100K milestone.