Bitcoin (BTC): High-level consolidation, breaking through key resistance requires accompanying trading volume.
Market performance:
The current price of Bitcoin is $94,381.12, with an intraday fluctuation range of $93,758-$95,453. The 4-hour candlestick chart shows price repeatedly contesting the $95,000 level, the MACD histogram continues to shorten, and the KDJ indicator is in the overbought zone (KDJ value is 88). The MA10 and MA30 moving averages are still in a bullish arrangement, but the gap is narrowing. The technical analysis shows a weakening bullish momentum, with the market entering a high-level consolidation phase.
Key resistance and support:
Resistance level: $95,483 (24-hour high), a breakout requires two conditions: the closing price must stabilize above this level for two consecutive 4-hour candlesticks, and trading volume must increase by more than 30% compared to the previous 4 hours.
Support level: $93,492 (recent low), if it breaks below, it may test $92,000 (below the previous low support level).
Operational Strategy:
Breakout order: If the price effectively breaks above $95,500 and stabilizes, buy in the direction of the trend, target price $97,500, stop loss set below $94,000.
Pullback order: If the price pulls back to the $93,000-$94,000 support area and stabilizes, buy in batches, controlling the first batch of positions at 5%. If the rebound is confirmed, it can be increased to 10%, with a stop loss set below $92,000.
Risk control: Control the risk of a single trade strictly within 2% of total funds to avoid heavy speculative positions.
Ethereum (ETH): Range-bound, fundamentals improving but momentum lacking.
Market performance:
The current price of Ethereum is $1,783.58, down 1.77% for the day, with a fluctuation range of $1,788-$1,842. The daily chart shows that the ETH/BTC ratio is at a low level, the MACD indicator shows a golden cross but the red histogram is growing slowly, the RSI indicator is hovering in the neutral zone, and the Bollinger Bands are narrowing. The technical analysis presents a neutral to weak pattern, but the 4-hour chart forms a bull flag pattern, targeting $2,100.
Key resistance and support:
Resistance level: $1,850 (upper boundary of the range), if it breaks and stabilizes for 48 hours, and trading volume increases by more than 25% compared to the average of the previous 5 days, it can be chased up to $1,900, with a medium-term target of $2,000.
Support level: $1,760 (lower boundary of the range), if it breaks below, it may test $1,740 (stop loss level).
Operational strategy:
Range trading: Buy high and sell low within the $1,760-$1,850 range, with buy conditions being the price pulling back to $1,760-$1,780 and showing bottom confirmation signals (such as a long lower shadow, reduced volume), target price $1,830-$1,850; sell conditions are when the price approaches $1,850 and shows top signals (such as a long upper shadow, divergence), target price $1,760-$1,780.
Long-term allocation: Considering that the total locked value (TVL) of Ethereum has reached $51.8 billion, with DEX trading volume increasing by 30% weekly, and signs of improvement in fundamentals, long-term investors can adopt a regular investment approach for ETH, as a supplement and hedge for Bitcoin holdings.
Market risk and opportunity alert.
Liquidity risk: Binance will conduct wallet maintenance on the Ethereum network at 15:00 on April 30, suspending ETH deposits and withdrawals, which may exacerbate short-term volatility, requiring attention to risks from abnormal price fluctuations.
Capital rotation risk: Tether Treasury has issued 2 billion USDT on the Ethereum network, indicating an increase in market liquidity, but funds may shift from Bitcoin to high-volatility altcoins, requiring caution about the divergent market where 'earning indices does not mean earning money.'
Policy and narrative risk: The Federal Reserve maintains a high-interest rate policy, combined with OpenAI's release of the 'Blockchain + Large Model' white paper, which may trigger a shift in market style, requiring close attention to macro data and the progress of narrative tracks.
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