In recent days, the soon-to-be-delisted 'Alpaca Coin' $ALPACA has been active in the market spotlight, stirring up over a hundred billion dollars in total trading volume with a circulating market value of $30 million. On April 24, Binance announced it would delist four tokens, including Alpaca Finance ($ALPACA), on May 2. The news of 'delisting from Binance' is usually a huge negative for projects — delisting means reduced liquidity, shrinking trading volume, and token prices often drop sharply or even plummet. But $ALPACA clearly did not follow this script. After the delisting news was released, $ALPACA experienced only about a 30% drop in a short time (based on Binance spot trading), followed by a rapid surge of nearly 12 times in price over the next three days, soaring from $0.029 to a peak of $0.3477. Meanwhile, the open interest (OI) of $AL contracts far exceeded its token market value multiple times. The 'meat grinder' market around $ALPACA has begun.
Rate settlement acceleration, intense long-short speculation. After announcing the delisting news one day later, on April 25, Binance adjusted the contract funding rate settlement rules for ALPACA, shortening the cap rate settlement period to once every hour (maximum ±2%). This further intensified the fierce competition between longs and shorts. Longs not only profit by pushing up prices but can also continue to 'eat' high funding rates, leading to a situation where they can both 'eat and take' within a few days, causing $ALPACA to remain in high-level speculation for nearly four days. However, shorts were not so lucky. An hourly settlement of -2% means that under 1x leverage, a short position held for one day would incur at least a 48% loss of the principal. Even with such high rates, the funds choosing to short continued to flow in. In this intense competition, some noticed something unusual. Some traders with millions of dollars in following funds kept shorting ALPACA at high leverage, ultimately causing significant losses alongside their followers' millions in funds.
On April 29, Binance raised the ALPACA contract funding rate cap to ±4%. For shorts, the increase in the funding rate cap would double the shorting costs. However, contrary to expectations that this would deter shorts, $ALPACA fell sharply, with prices dropping from $0.27 to around $0.067.
The script of ALPACA is unpredictable, and the original trading rules keep failing; the only constant is probably change.
There are no absolute trading rules. Looking back at this billion-dollar farce, the recent ALPACA experience was almost a Meme — the delisting negative news attracted massive attention, allowing the principle of 'black and red are also red' to be fully realized in price volatility. At the same time, some characteristics of alpacas—relatively low circulating market value (only less than $4 million at the lowest point) in a first-tier exchange environment, highly controlled chips, and drastic price fluctuations that constantly stimulate players' nerves—make it resonate with Memes. The image is certainly cute, but for those truly involved in the speculation, these days might only be described as 'bloody.' There were instances of frantic buying on negative news, and the news of 'short squeezes' led to smooth declines, as the complex movements of $ALPACA overturned the usual 'sell the news' logic and many people's positions. Some voices suggest that traders using followers' money to short without regard for costs is a hunt for retail funds, as the movie tagline goes: 'The money of the gentry is returned in full, while the people's money is split three-seven.' The truth of these statements is hard to judge at this moment, but it can be confirmed that even if the real situation is not so dark, the final winner of this manipulation will not be ordinary users. However, things have duality; some feel confused while others feel excited. For many participants seeking price volatility and possessing exceptional skills, the movements of alpacas might even represent a long-lost opportunity to make significant profits. Clearly, the boundaries between 'good news' and 'bad news' have gradually blurred, and the previously singular judgment logic is no longer applicable to the ever-evolving market. Instead, violent manipulation that plays with human nature has become rampant, with ever-refreshing liquidation data gradually occupying the market center. Describing this evolutionary direction as 'barbaric growth' might be more than appropriate. Under the premise that corresponding regulatory measures have not yet been perfected, the last frenzy of manipulation in the $ALPACA market is unfolding. As of the completion of this writing, the significant rebound of $ALPACA 's $ALPACA might still lead to more exciting 'performances' before the official delisting. However, in the stormy price speculation, it is hard to find a self-preserving space for naive participants. Under the hunt for attention and liquidity, perhaps the best strategy for retail investors is to watch less and act more. After all, seeing big news and an abnormal price trend, it's not just retail investors who feel that 'opportunity has come,' but also the long-hungry project parties.
