Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a strong rebound from a low of $75,000 to above $95,700 in April 2025, with a cumulative increase of nearly 28% for the month. The current price is forming a high-level platform in the $94,000-$95,000 range, with technical indicators and fund flows showing a complex situation of interwoven bullish and bearish battles, and trends nearing a turning point.
April market review: Oscillation and rise after a deep V reversal
1. Candlestick pattern analysis: strong rebound + high-level consolidation
Bitcoin's April trend can be roughly divided into three phases:
Phase One (April 1 - 4): Affected by the strengthened risk aversion sentiment in traditional markets at the end of March, BTC rebounded from the low point of $74,508 at the beginning of the month, forming a key support bottom.
Phase Two (April 5 - 18): Entering the moving average convergence area, bulls gradually take control of the rhythm, prices slowly rise, and trading volume is released moderately.
Phase Three (April 19 - 29): Short-term rise to $95,758 peak, followed by entry into a high-level platform consolidation area, MACD death cross, RSI oscillating, and increasing market wait-and-see sentiment.
The candlestick structure shows a typical 'deep V reversal - flag pattern', consistent with the characteristics of the accumulation phase in a major upward cycle.
2. Analysis of trading density and major cost zones
By observing the volume profile, we find:
$84,500-$86,000 range is the main accumulation area, which has dense horizontal trading and strong support properties. The current price is around $95,000, entering a thin area of high leverage. Once there is a volume breakout, there is potential for a rapid surge; conversely, if it breaks support, it may trigger profit-taking panic.
Comprehensive interpretation of funds and technical indicators
1. OBV: Fund momentum slightly shows signs of exhaustion
The OBV (On-Balance Volume) indicator has rapidly risen since early April, reflecting positive net fund inflows. However, after entering a high level, OBV began to flatten out, indicating that there is currently no new large funds continuously entering. If OBV continues to decline in the next few days, it will further weaken the upward momentum.
2. MACD: Momentum converges, near the end of oscillation
The MACD indicator currently shows a high-level convergence trend: the DIF line and DEA line converge near the zero axis, and the momentum of the red and green bars is significantly shrinking. This state is often seen before a continuation or reversal of the trend, indicating that prices are about to choose a direction.
3. RSI and KDJ: Entering the decision critical zone
The RSI value is currently around 52, in a neutral to bullish zone, indicating that neither bulls nor bears have yet determined the outcome. The KDJ shows signs of the J line repeatedly flattening at a high level and the K line declining, warning of a possible technical correction in the short term.
4. Moving average system: Bullish arrangement still exists
Short-term MA5, MA10, and MA30 may have slightly converged, but overall still in a bullish arrangement. The medium to long-term MA60 and MA120 maintain an upward trend, showing that the logic of mid-term upward movement has not been destroyed.
Market structure and sentiment analysis: Divergence between bulls and bears intensifies
1. ETF fund flow: Incremental momentum strengthens
After mid to late April, the net inflow speed of Bitcoin spot ETFs accelerates. In particular, the inflow from BlackRock (IBIT) indicates new buying interest in the market, providing momentum for subsequent price increases.
2. Derivatives market: Implied volatility of options declines
From Deribit and Binance data, the implied volatility (IV) of BTC options has continued to decline since mid-April, indicating that traders are cautious about a future major market eruption. In terms of positions, the Call/Put ratio tends towards neutrality, with the market generally expecting continued oscillation.
May trend forecast: Two key paths emerge
Scenario One: Break above $96,000, starting a new round of major upward wave
If the price effectively breaks through the $96,000 platform high with increased volume, accompanied by a rise in OBV and a MACD golden cross, it will open up upward space, with a target of:
First resistance: $102,000 (Fibonacci 1.272 extension)
Second target: $105,000 (round number)
Fundamental catalysts may include a renewed acceleration of ETF net inflows, enhanced dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve, or news of mainstream institutions entering the market.
Scenario Two: Break below $90,000, entering a deep correction period
Once it breaks below the MA30 and the lower edge of the platform, it may trigger a large number of profit-taking and liquidation, and short-term support will move down to:
First support: $88,000
Core support zone: $84,500-$86,000 (major cost zone)
In this situation, attention must be paid to macro risk events (such as rapid surges in U.S. Treasury yields or tariff policies) that may lead to risk aversion.
Conclusion: May is the 'decision month' for the annual trend.
The current Bitcoin price is at a critical point of balance between bulls and bears. Technical patterns, indicator performance, and fund structure all indicate that the market is about to break through the consolidation range. May may determine the mid-term trend direction for 2025.
As the technical analysts say: 'When all indicators are silent, true upheaval is about to begin.'
In the current context of macro uncertainty and market observation sentiment, rationality, systematic approach, and discipline remain key to long-term success in the digital asset market.
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