Dalio warns: The global monetary order is on the verge of collapse.
Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates and known as the ‘investment master,’ recently issued a warning stating that the global monetary order is ‘on the verge of collapse,’ and the Trump administration's tariff policies are accelerating this process.
At the same time, the well-known investment bank JPMorgan Chase still maintains its forecast that the probability of a global economic recession in 2025 is 60%, delivering a shock to the market.
According to Cointelegraph, Dalio stated on the X platform (formerly Twitter) yesterday (4/29) that the current situation of global trade tensions is shaking the global monetary, political, and international order, leading to de-globalization and triggering unsustainable trade imbalances:
“More and more importers and exporters, especially between the US and China, are significantly reducing their mutual dependence and drawing up alternative plans. They have recognized that, regardless of how tariff policies change, these issues will not disappear, and significantly reducing mutual reliance with the US has become a reality that must be faced.”
Dalio believes that as the world's largest consumer of manufactured goods and largest issuer of debt, the US's role is becoming increasingly unstable, and the expectation that trade partners will continue to sell goods to the US and accept the dollar is too naive, predicting that more countries may bypass the US by establishing new trade networks that adopt other currencies.
Source: X. Dalio warns: The global monetary order is on the verge of collapse.
JPMorgan Chase: The risk of economic recession in 2025 remains at 60%.
In the face of the uncertainty and panic brought by Trump's tariff war, JPMorgan Chase released a report on April 15 predicting that even with some adjustments to tariff policies by the Trump administration, the probability of an economic recession in 2025 still reaches 60%, higher than the previous forecast of 40%.
JPMorgan Chase’s Chief Global Economist Bruce Kasman bluntly stated:
“Even if Trump's tariff policies have made some concessions, the remaining tariffs are still sufficient to bring about a recession in the US, China, and even the global economy this year.”
JPMorgan Chase points out that even though the Trump administration has partially retreated from harsh tariff measures on Liberation Day, the 145% tariffs imposed on China, along with a general 10% tariff rate on other countries, have effectively raised the average US tariff rate to about 30%.
The total tax increase before this implementation (i.e., before the substitution effect occurs) is close to 1 trillion dollars, equivalent to 3% of GDP, making it the largest tax burden increase faced by American households and businesses since World War II.
Source: JPMorgan Chase. JPMorgan Chase maintains its forecast: The risk of economic recession in 2025 remains at 60%.
Dalio: Tariffs cause irreversible damage, JPMorgan Chase estimates a rate cut in September.
JPMorgan Chase's report predicts that the US Federal Reserve will begin lowering interest rates in September of this year, and will continue to lower rates at each meeting until January 2026, reducing the policy rate to 3% by mid-2026.
The scale of the impact of tariff policies and their global effects are likely to lead to faster and larger-scale policy stimuli.
Kasman stated that before the economic recession fully materializes, global monetary policy may still shift towards easing, as growth shortages in key industries and the risk of disruption in industrial structures have prompted governments to take action.
Dalio calls for the US to take calmer and more coordinated actions to address trade imbalances and enhance self-sufficiency, directly confronting the US government debt issue, which would be better than current policies:
“Unfortunately, so far, we have not seen a better approach; instead, we are witnessing worrying disputes and turmoil that are teaching people some lessons and leading to irreparable serious consequences.”
‘Dalio: The monetary order is on the verge of collapse! Tariffs cause “irreversible damage,” is a recession coming?’ This article was first published in ‘Crypto City’