Recently, social media has been buzzing about Bitcoin's 'supply shock' approaching, sparking widespread discussions in the market about scarcity.
Through on-chain data analysis, it has been found that from November 11, 2024, to April 28, 2025, the Bitcoin holdings on centralized exchanges (CEX) reduced sharply from 2,942,077 coins to 2,490,318 coins, a total decrease of 451,719 coins, continuing a clear downward trend.
At the same time, the actual market value of Bitcoin rose from $66.932 billion to $88.3025 billion, an increase of $21.374 billion.
Data shows that if the market sees an additional active purchase of about 500,000 Bitcoins, the price could reach the range of $130,000 to $140,000.
However, it is important to note that miners currently hold 1,808,548.46 Bitcoins, and historical experience indicates that when Bitcoin prices surge, miners tend to increase their selling pressure, which could partially offset the impact of the decline in exchange holdings and potentially trigger price correction pressure.
Overall, the likelihood of a substantial supply shock occurring in the current cycle is low. To achieve a supply shock, a massive influx of capital would be required to drive actual market value growth by 3 to 4 times.
Although the concept of scarcity is highly attractive, existing data suggests that the market is still quite far from a true supply shock.
