Recently, Trump launched an ambitious auto tariff policy: overseas car manufacturers can enjoy tariff reductions if they ensure that 85% of their vehicle parts are produced in the U.S., with the reductions gradually taking effect over three years. This policy aims to attract foreign car manufacturers to build factories in the U.S., boosting local manufacturing and employment, adding momentum to 'Made in America'. However, for car manufacturers, this is not a simple multiple-choice question. Building factories in the U.S. requires substantial investment, and the return period is long; if they choose to bear the tariffs, it may weaken their competitiveness. More challenging is the uncertainty regarding the continuity of the policy. If the Republicans lose the White House in 2028, it remains unknown whether the Democrats will continue this tariff system. Car manufacturers must weigh short-term costs against long-term strategies, and every step of their decisions relates to the future layout of the global supply chain.
Tonight's U.S. GDP and PCE data release is highly anticipated, but players' judgments on its impact are polarized. As a leading indicator of inflation, PCE is expected not to cause much of a stir, as the market has reached a consensus on its trend. The GDP data is more controversial, with market views splitting into two logics. One view holds that GDP data is heavily lagging and unlikely to have a substantial impact on the market. Even if the data is weak, the results, which have long been anticipated, may not trigger sharp fluctuations. The other view is more optimistic: if GDP performs poorly, it may strengthen expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which would be favorable for risk assets. This logic is reminiscent of the period of rising unemployment in 2024 when the market pushed up U.S. stocks in anticipation of easing policies.
Meanwhile, the earnings season has injected vitality into the market. This week, four giant companies will announce their performance, and impressive earnings reports may overshadow macro data, becoming a short-term momentum driver for U.S. stocks. Under the game of multiple factors, the market direction remains unclear, and waiting may be the most prudent strategy at present.
Bitcoin has a concentrated amount of chips in the $92,000 to $97,000 range, showing a stalemate between bulls and bears. However, trading volume continues to shrink, and players generally maintain a wait-and-see attitude. Unlike the event-driven active atmosphere of last week, the current market sentiment is becoming calm, similar to the scene of a FOMO retreat after an election. Technical analysis shows that the 120-day moving average (around $91,600) is Bitcoin's lifeline. As long as it does not fall below this support, the bullish pattern is still expected to continue; if it loses this support, it may trigger a new round of correction. Tonight's GDP and PCE data may become the key to determining the short-term trend, requiring high vigilance.
