The market looks quite restless now. After surging from 83000 to 94000, $BTC has been fluctuating back and forth between 83000 and 95700 for 17 days. This situation seems to be building up for a big move:
Market signals:
After half a month of sideways movement, there hasn't been a significant amount of capital dumping, and the exchange balance hasn't surged. There are also few large on-chain transfers. If it breaks through 95700, the next level to watch is the psychological barrier of 100000. But don't get too excited; if it really breaks through, it must be on increased volume. A surge on low volume is just playing tricks.
Risk warning for May:
The Federal Reserve's meeting on the 8th is a minefield (no interest rate cut = negative, interest rate hike = nuclear bomb). If the major players want to exit, they will definitely set up ambushes in advance. During the May Day holiday, they might secretly dump the market (don't be fooled by the current sideways movement; it might be a fishing line).
If it truly crashes, a 30% drop in a day is no joke (refer to May 19, 2021, how many people got liquidated).
Operational advice:
For those wanting to double their investment, don't exceed 50% of your position; hold some bullets for buying the dip.
Set a 10% stop-loss; if it drops below 92700, run immediately.
Don't go all-in in early May; preserving your capital is better than anything else.
Old investors understand: Bull markets often have sharp drops, while bear markets often have sharp rises. Calling out risks now isn't being cowardly; it's about being afraid you might lose everything.
