Is it a trap or a real breakthrough?
Technical Analysis:
Today BTC played a game of heartbeats at the 95000 position, opening with a drop to 93600, but ETF funds hard-pushed it back above 94500. The 4-hour candlestick formed a long lower shadow doji, clearly indicating the main force is washing out positions. Now the 94300 position has become the dividing line between bulls and bears. Although MACD shows a death cross, the downward momentum is weakening. There are two key details on the chart: above 95000 there are 32,000 Bitcoin sell orders, while around 93600 there is significant capital crazily bottom-fishing. The Bitcoin stock in exchanges has dropped to a seven-year low, and this high-level volatility is definitely the main force accumulating positions.
News Front:
On the eve of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, the market is eerily quiet. BlackRock's ETF bought 970 million USD worth of Bitcoin in just one day, but hedge funds are crazily shorting in the futures market, with institutions harvesting each other leaving retail investors in a dilemma. A sudden negative event is the U.S. mining tariff policy, leading to a sell-off from small mines and a sharp drop in hash power, but the overall network hash power has still maintained the 600EH/s bottom line, with large mines holding on. The most surprising news is the collaboration between Mastercard and OKX to launch a cryptocurrency credit card, as traditional financial giants entering the market have further ignited Bitcoin's payment functionality.
Key Position Contest:
Currently, 95500 is the life and death line for bulls and bears. If the daily line can hold this position, a double bottom pattern will be established, making a breakthrough of 100,000 just a matter of time. The lower defense looks at the weekly level iron bottom of 93678, which combines the futures contract gap, miner cost price, and institutional support as a triple support. Personally, I judge that the Federal Reserve's signal to inject liquidity will trigger a surge, but be careful of the PCE data surprise at 22:30 tonight, as the main force may first crash the market and then pull it back up.
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Focus for the day: OM SUI SOL FUN XRP
