On Wednesday from 20:15 to 22:00 Beijing time, the US will release key data including April ADP employment numbers, first quarter GDP, and March PCE, which may be influenced by Trump's tariff policies, with expectations mixed.
Data Preview: On Tuesday, JOLTS job openings fell to the lowest level since September of last year, indicating weakened labor demand, but layoffs decreased and the resignation rate increased. The market expects April ADP employment numbers to drop from 155,000 to 115,000, with the more critical Friday non-farm payroll data expected to show slowing job growth and a stable unemployment rate. The first quarter GDP is expected to slow significantly due to a record trade deficit of $162 billion in March, with multiple economists lowering their forecasts, the most pessimistic predicting a contraction of 2.4%. Consumer confidence in April fell to its lowest level since 2011, marking the fifth consecutive decline. The March PCE is expected to see core month-on-month growth slow from 0.4% to 0.08%, nearly flat overall, but tariffs may change inflation trends, and the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates next week.
Market Impact: If the US economy unexpectedly contracts, it will intensify recession fears, drive expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, lead to a depreciation of the dollar, and gold prices may hit new highs; if the slowdown is less than expected, the market and the dollar will catch a breather, and gold shorts may gain strength. Due to the critical non-farm payroll data on Friday, traders are currently cautious, limiting gold price fluctuations. The dollar remains strong due to tariff policies and trade negotiations, while the daily technical indicators for gold are favorable for bulls, with support at $3300-3290 and resistance at $3328; a breakthrough will challenge higher levels.