Is there still an opportunity in the crypto market in 2025? Will there be a bull market?

Analysis of structural changes in the cryptocurrency market's liquidity distribution imbalance

Since the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF, institutional funds have shown a one-sided inflow trend. According to public data, the cumulative net inflow through the ETF channel has reached $38 billion, but the funds are almost entirely concentrated in Bitcoin. This phenomenon has led to an unprecedented liquidity drain in the altcoin market:

Bitcoin's market share hits a record: currently at 56%, surpassing the peak of the 2021 bull market

Altcoin valuations collapse: the top 50 projects have dropped over 60% from the average price in February, and newly launched tokens have an average lifespan of less than 10 days

Market momentum is fractured: Bitcoin has risen 160% this year, while the altcoin index has dropped 40% in the same period

The operating logic of a pseudo-recovery market

Despite the market attention triggered by the Ethereum upgrade in March, historical data reveals a harsh reality:

For every 4 percentage points decrease in Bitcoin's market share (e.g., 56% → 52%), the average rebound in altcoins does not exceed 25%

The median duration of such market conditions is only 72 hours, after which there is a general retraction of 90% of the gains

In the past 12 months, similar "altcoin season" signals have appeared 7 times, all ultimately confirmed as false breakouts

Altered investor behavior patterns

The current market exhibits two major characteristics:

Increased dominance of institutions: the top ten addresses hold 31% of the circulating Bitcoin supply, an increase of 9 percentage points since 2021

Retail strategies have failed: the traditional "bull market rotation" strategy has an annualized return of -47%, and shorting altcoins has become one of the few effective strategies

Rational response framework

Position management: It is recommended to allocate 70% of positions to Bitcoin spot, hold 15% in stablecoins, and use the remaining funds only for low-leverage hedging

Opportunity identification: When Bitcoin's market share falls below 50% and the weekly increase in stablecoin market capitalization exceeds 5%, an altcoin swing strategy can be initiated

Risk aversion: If the turnover rate of newly launched tokens exceeds 500% in the first week, it triggers a short signal, with a historical win rate of 82%

The market has entered a deep phase of institutional transformation, and the phenomenon of liquidity stratification may continue for 2-3 cycles. Investors need to face the reality: the essence of this round of market conditions is the targeted restructuring of the crypto market by traditional capital, and non-Bitcoin assets are experiencing a painful period of value reassessment.