Pi Network is struggling to keep up with the recent recovery of the cryptocurrency market, down about 10% over the past week.
At a price of $0.5832, the token is currently trading about 80% lower than its all-time high of $2.99. However, recent trading volume paints a slightly different picture. The trading volume of Pi Network (PI) has increased nearly 35% over the past day, surpassing $128 million.
Although the technical picture is still uncertain, this suggests that traders are once again paying attention, which could be a sign of a more significant move.
The biggest obstacle currently is the 50-day simple moving average, at around $0.82. PI remains below that line, and many other short-term moving averages, such as the 10-day and 20-day moving averages, also show a downward trend.
The relative strength is 38.7, indicating that the token is heading towards an oversold condition, but not necessarily so. However, some indicators, such as moving average convergence/divergence, suggest that buyers may be gradually stepping in.
The Bollinger Bands indicate that PI is near the lower band, suggesting it is trading within a lower volatility range and may be oversold. A recovery from here could push the price back to the mid-band near $0.75 or higher.
If PI surpasses the 50-day SMA with high volume, it could push up to $0.85–$0.90. A bullish move beyond $1.00 would reverse sentiment, especially if driven by major news. If the price remains below the key moving averages and selling continues, PI could retest the support level near $0.55 or even drop to $0.45, close to its historical lows.
One of the biggest risks for Pi Network is token dilution. In April, 21.4 million new tokens were unlocked, worth about $12.3 million. It is estimated that 131 million tokens will be unlocked each month for the next 12 months. Unless demand increases or the group takes action, this gradual increase in supply could have a significant impact on the price.
One solution could be token burning. The Pi Foundation currently holds over 70 billion PI tokens, worth over $40 billion. To ease investor concerns and support the price, some of these tokens could be burned. Token burning could also be combined with a fee-burning mechanism.
Another potential catalyst is listing on a major exchange like Coinbase or Binance. There is an increasing positive sentiment from the community regarding a future listing, similar to other tokens, which could open up new demand and liquidity. Currently, the potential to turn the 50-day MA into support for Pi Network could be the first sign that true strength is returning.