In-depth analysis of today's ETH market! Are whales lurking?
I. Quick market overview
Today, the ETH market is like constipation, with an all-day fluctuation of 0.14% stuck around the mid-range of $1800, rubbing back and forth. It opened at $1800.5 and spiked to $1803 only to be immediately slammed back to the $1800 mark. By the end of the day, it barely closed at $1802.96, managing to stay above the mid-range but with volume shrinking significantly. The BOLL bands have narrowed down to an $8 range, with the upper band at $1804.5 pressing down hard and the lower band at $1796 barely supporting the bullish defense line. The MACD shows a golden cross below water, but the red bars are not expanding, indicating that bulls are tentatively attacking. On-chain data shows that whales have placed massive buy orders in the $1795-$1800 range to support the market. The mid-range support on the weekly chart, combined with the dog trader's pressure to accumulate, makes this position hard to drop but also difficult to push up, a typical dog trader control situation.
II. ETF expectations vs. Grayscale sell-off, whales quietly accumulating
On the news front, the anticipation of the U.S. ETF approval is still brewing, but Grayscale continues to see outflows, forming a hedge; the news balance is about even. However, on-chain undercurrents are stirring, with institutions like Wintermute quietly accumulating 30,000 ETH via OTC, and Cumberland withdrawing 27,000 ETH from exchanges. This whale operation avoids market prices to prevent upward pressure, clearly indicating a low-level stockpiling strategy waiting for a takeoff. Coupled with Layer-2 active addresses soaring to a historical high of 13.6 million, enhancing ecological scalability and releasing long-term benefits, this smart money is clearly betting on ETH's value recovery.
III. Technical insights
On the 4-hour level, the KDJ is dulling at a high position, needing to guard against false breakouts. The dog trader is likely waiting for tonight's non-farm data to shake out the market. The daily EMA7 and EMA30 are about to cross, with prices firmly holding above EMA120; the medium to long-term bullish trend remains intact, but a short-term surge in volume is needed to choose a direction. The ascending triangle pattern is gradually taking shape, targeting the pressure level of $1840 after a breakout, aiming for $1900, but if it breaks below the $1796 support, it may trigger a panic sell-off down to the previous low of $1750.
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