XRP rose by 7% in the last week of April, but May 2025 could bring even greater changes as key catalysts align. Key metrics such as NUPL and active addresses indicate a market at a crossroads, with strong optimism and warning signals.
The hype around ETF approval has caused volatility, and real institutional inflows may determine the next major trend for XRP. Traders should prepare for a month when both sharp rallies and deep corrections remain on the agenda.
The NUPL indicator for XRP indicates growing confidence, but ETF rumors are causing volatility.
The net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) of long-term XRP holders currently stands at 0.73. This places it in the 'Belief—Denial' phase of the market cycle. This metric measures the average unrealized profit among long-term holders.
It has been stuck in this zone since March 27, over a month ago. Overall, NUPL values above 0.75 indicate 'Euphoria—Greed.'
Indicators between 0.5 and 0.75 indicate a belief that prices may rise, but there is also a risk of denial if momentum weakens.
The current value has risen from 0.68 three weeks ago to 0.73 today. Long-term XRP holders are seeing larger paper profits. However, the market may soon face a critical moment when either continuation or correction occurs. Rumors of the SEC-approved spot XRP ETF have recently caused confusion, adding more fuel to market volatility. In fact, only leveraged and short XRP Futures ETFs by ProShares were approved to start trading on April 30. The actual spot ETF has not been approved.
While the approval of futures is seen as a positive step for the long-term legitimacy of XRP, the spread of misinformation has damaged investor confidence. It has also created unnecessary instability.
In light of this, analysts noted that XRP's market capitalization could exceed that of Ethereum. Rumors of XRP and SWIFT partnership have also increased over the past month.
Some experts predict that the upcoming spot ETF could eventually attract up to $100 billion in capital inflows into XRP. However, until that happens, volatility driven by rumors and misunderstandings remains a major risk for the token.
User engagement with XRP is declining as the number of active addresses remains below 200,000.
7-day active XRP addresses have significantly decreased, currently at 147,000, compared to their historical peak of 1.22 million reached on March 19.
This sharp decrease reflects a broader cooling of network activity after the massive growth observed earlier this year.
Monitoring active addresses is important as it provides real-time information on user engagement, transaction volume, and the overall state of the ecosystem—decreasing address activity often signals declining interest, reduced transaction flow, and a weaker foundation for sustainable price growth. Since April 1, the number of 7-day active XRP addresses has consistently remained below 200,000, underscoring that user activity has not yet fully recovered.
While the decrease does not necessarily mean an inevitable major price drop, it highlights a critical moment: strong rallies are often supported by increasing network participation.
Without significant growth in active XRP addresses, it may be difficult to maintain momentum or initiate a new bullish phase in the near term.
Approval of the XRP ETF could trigger a 49% rise, but downside risks remain.
Final approval of the spot XRP ETF could serve as a major catalyst for the token's price. This potentially unlocks significant institutional inflows. Recently, the world's first XRP ETF started trading in Brazil.
Experts predict that if real demand follows approval, as it did with Bitcoin, XRP's price could rise sharply. The next major growth target is $3.40, representing a 49% increase from current levels.
This movement will be driven by new inflows, greater overall acceptance, and reduced supply as more investors gain direct access through regulated channels. In a downturn, if momentum does not recover and a strong downward trend takes hold, it could lead to a sharp correction. A break below the psychological level of $2.00 would expose the token to deeper losses, with the next significant support level around $1.61.
Such a movement would mean a decline of 29% from current prices, reflecting a scenario where optimism around ETFs fades and selling pressure increases.
In this case, XRP may remain in a broader consolidation or bear market phase until stronger catalysts emerge.#BinanceSquare #XRPETFs #BinanceSquareTalks #Binance #xrp $XRP