During the May Day Golden Week (5.1-5.5), if large speculators enter the market, the main force may take advantage of the holiday to make moves and possibly pump the market. If there are floating profits on long positions, take partial profits and hold the rest to protect the capital. As long as the support does not break, look upward. If the interest rate meeting on 5.1 does not raise rates, the market may pulse upwards.
On the last day of the 5.5 holiday, especially in the late night, the main force may take advantage of people's fatigue to launch a surprise attack and sell off. Sometimes they may strike a day early on 5.4 (Sunday night) as a prelude to the interest rate meeting two days later, generally moving to a consolidation phase 1-2 days before, and starting to decline at 5.7 US market time.
Thus, the bulls need to contract next week, maintaining low leverage and light positions. The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on 5.8 generally sees the main force exit 24 hours in advance to observe. Not lowering rates in May meets expectations and is not considered bearish, but the probability of a rate cut in June is high, so May may digest the positive expectations for June in advance.
Therefore, it is not recommended to short multiple times at the same price point, as prolonged sideways movement can lead to change. The last position must have a stop loss, and it is safest to place short orders in batches between the new high points of 96600-99200.
Will there be a large liquidation in the next two days?
Historically, there is an average of a large liquidation every 13 days, with an average liquidation amount of 800-2000 million USD. The most recent large liquidation was on 4.7, and there has been no fluctuation for 23 days since 4.30. Will there be another large liquidation recently?
In the last 24 hours, a total of 104,849 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of 187 million USD. Pay more attention to risks.
Some things often change, but some things remain constant, such as human greed chasing highs and selling lows, and the methods used by manipulators.
May Market Outlook: Analysis of the Most Potential 100x Alpha Track
If the market experiences explosive growth in May, the following tracks are most likely to create excess return (Alpha) opportunities:
1. AI + MCP (Modular Computing Protocol), Representative Projects: DARK, DARK, SKYAI
Logic: The AI track is still the strongest area of rebound currently, with some leading projects like $VIRTUAL reaching historical highs and receiving very high attention from capital.
2. RWA (Real World Assets), Representative Projects: ONDO, ONDO, TRU, $PENDLE
Logic: The RWA track benefits from the entry of traditional financial funds, possessing long-term growth potential, especially for stable income asset protocols.
3. New Forces in the BTC Ecosystem, Representative Projects: ODINDOG, ODINDOG, METHAN, $BUTANE
Logic: As the Bitcoin ecosystem (such as RUNE, Layer2, etc.) heats up, new projects may experience explosive growth.
Investment Strategy: Focus on Leaders, Seize the AI Boom
Currently, the AI track is performing the strongest, and it is recommended to prioritize leading projects such as:
1. Stable Choices: VIRTUAL (at an all-time high, strong trend), VIRTUAL (at an all-time high, strong trend), AIXBT, AI16Z
2. High Risk High Reward: COOKIE, TUT, $ACT (high volatility, suitable for aggressive investors)
3. Market Comparison: The current heat of AI is comparable to the explosion period of the Metaverse in 2021 (such as SAND, SAND, MANA, AXS, AXS, MAGIC), during which some projects doubled in a single day and had weekly increases of over five times. If external funds flow into Web3 on a large scale, the AI sector will undoubtedly be the most core narrative entry.
Meme Coins vs. AI: Although Meme coins (such as DOGE, SHIB, etc.) are very popular in the short term, AI has more advantages in long-term value narrative and institutional recognition.
