Cardano is hovering around $0.71, but the weekly structure that veteran chartist Maelius (@MaeliusCrypto) published on X suggests that the calm may just be a pause before the next bullish move. This analyst's chart condenses seven years of ADA/USD history into one frame and shows that - despite a 45% pullback from the late 2024 peak - the coin has yet to break the dashed uptrend line that has connected every low of the cycle since the Covid panic in 2020.
Is Cardano ready for a strong surge?
In fact, the most recent decline stopped within a long-term demand zone currently spanning from about $0.57 to $0.78 and immediately created a textbook higher low (HL) while never closing a week below that dynamic support. Price action is once again trading above the 50-week exponential moving average, now at nearly $0.66, after reclaiming this level with two decisive green candles.
Back in March 2024, a similar moving average served as a springboard for a vertical breakthrough that brought ADA to higher highs (HH) just shy of $1.31 - the peak of the dotted channel, which has constrained every impulsive bullish move since 2020. As the upper channel boundary is now near $1.50, Maelius argues that a clear breakout from the demand zone could unleash enough momentum to retest that ceiling.
Momentum is re-evaluating the argument but has yet to provide full confirmation. The weekly relative strength index is at 49 and has contracted into a descending wedge since the peak in March; it is creating a series of higher lows reflecting price, but the descending resistance line - drawn from the HH value near 82 - still limits any rally.
The wave trend oscillator tells a similar story: it creates a clear bearish divergence at the 2024 peak, flows into the oversold region around -50, and is currently just turning up, with the fast and slow curves on the verge of a bullish crossover.
"ADA looks great, or is it just me?! I want to see the RSI break out with a decisive move on the WTO to become extremely confident, but prices will be higher when (and if) we achieve that," Maelius wrote as he published the chart. In other words, momentum confirmation may lag behind price, similar to previous cycle accelerations in 2020 and 2023.
From a purely market structure perspective, ADA still maintains a continuous series of higher highs and higher lows on the weekly chart, the current downtrend line from the all-time high in 2021 was broken over a year ago, and the recent correction is nothing more concerning than a return to the new support threshold.
As long as the weekly candles respect the lower boundary of the gray demand block (~$0.57) and the multi-year uptrend line, the path of least resistance will be north – with the next intersection of resistance near $0.81 (the peak in March 2024) as well as the high in December 2024 at $1.31 and the upper channel wall at around $1.50.
If the RSI crosses above 60 and the wave trend oscillator confirms with a bullish crossover, Maelius believes the market will be trading at significantly higher prices, proving his belief that a new bullish wave is just a matter of time.