Bitcoin could follow past cycles where price jumped fast after reaching the same RSI level
The current RSI trend shows room to grow before hitting a top zone
A 186 percent move from the present value can push Bitcoin above 200K soon
Bitcoin (BTC) may surge past $200,000 in the next 4–6 months, according to analyst Donny (@DonnyDicey) on X. A recent chart shows BTC’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has room to rise, echoing patterns from previous bull markets. The same RSI level marked massive gains in past cycles, particularly in 2021.
https://twitter.com/DonnyDicey/status/1917059549699416210
The RSI currently sits at 66.09, with previous peaks surpassing 90. The chart shows this level has historically triggered strong upward momentum. Based on Fibonacci levels and historical RSI trends, the analysis projects BTC could hit the 3.618 extension around $209,984. This would mark a +186% move from current prices near $74,709.
The comparison references the 2021 cycle where BTC rose 481% after reaching this RSI level. Using the same framework, a similar path could now lead to a six-figure valuation. The analysis suggests BTC’s “blow-off top” phase has yet to occur and may just be beginning.
RSI Indicates Historical Momentum
The RSI has consistently played a key role in predicting cycle tops in Bitcoin’s market history. Every peak on the RSI chart corresponds with a major BTC price top, forming a trendline over multiple cycles. Currently, RSI has not touched this descending trendline, leaving significant upward room.
Past behavior shows that once RSI rises toward this upper boundary, a multi-month bull run follows. The 2021 rally, for instance, accelerated after RSI approached these levels. That rally resulted in a 481% price increase from similar RSI positioning.
In the chart, RSI during previous cycle peaks—particularly 2013, 2017, and 2021—was higher than now. That pattern suggests the current cycle still has room for a continuation of bullish sentiment. The implication is a potential move toward the projected target of $209,984.
Fibonacci Levels Align With Market Phases
The analysis uses macro Fibonacci extensions to estimate BTC’s potential top. The 3.618 Fibonacci extension accurately marked the first peak of the 2021 bull cycle. This same ratio now extends to a price of $209,984, aligning with the RSI trend signal.
According to the chart, BTC has already passed the 1.618 level of $63,222 and surpassed the $69,000 level, which acted as a resistance. The RSI trend and price action together support a similar blow-off top structure that previously unfolded in 4–6 months of bullish movement.
BTC’s historical trajectory shows price surges follow consistent Fibonacci paths, with each cycle moving progressively higher. With RSI yet to reach its historical ceiling, the alignment of Fibonacci and RSI creates strong confluence for continued upside.
Could This Cycle Mirror 2021’s Explosion?
In 2021, when RSI reached the same level it holds now, BTC increased by 481% over several months. If that same move repeated, it would drive BTC to approximately $209,984 from current levels, representing a +186% rally.
Such a rally would mirror the timing of past cycles, where explosive growth occurred over 4–6 months of consecutive bullish candles. The chart indicates this type of pattern began again in September 2023, with momentum potentially continuing into late 2025.
