Bitcoin's price surge toward $95,000 is accompanied by a significant increase in short-term speculative activity, according to new data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode.
Speculative capital flows into Bitcoin
As Bitcoin trades at its highest levels since early March, Glassnode’s latest analysis shows a sharp rise in "hot supply"—the volume of BTC that has moved within the past week. This metric serves as a proxy for short-term holder (STH) behavior and speculative investor activity.
Hot supply has grown by over $21.5 billion since March 23, when it reached a local low of $17.5 billion.
As of April 29, the value of this metric stands near $40 billion, its highest level since February 2025.
“This rapid surge reflects a shift from dormancy to speculation among newer market entrants,” Glassnode noted in its Market Pulse update.
The increase aligns with a broader shift in market sentiment, as short-term holders have recently returned to aggregate profitability amid BTC’s climb toward $95,000.
Bull market signals remain incomplete
While several indicators suggest a rising interest in Bitcoin, Glassnode cautioned that network activity has yet to match historical bull market patterns.
Percentage of supply in profit has climbed to 86%.
Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) reached 0.53, indicating growing optimism among holders.
However, daily active addresses remain subdued, signaling that organic on-chain engagement is still rebuilding.
“Signs of early FOMO are emerging,” the firm wrote. “But a full-scale bull market comeback is not yet confirmed, with core network metrics like transfer volume and address activity still recovering.”
Broader implications
The recent rise in speculative inflows follows a multi-week period of consolidation and dormancy in March, when Bitcoin briefly fell below $75,000. The return of speculative capital may serve as both a bullish momentum signal and a potential volatility risk, as the market becomes more reactive to short-term investor behavior.
Industry analysts have warned in recent weeks that excessive FOMO could amplify short-term corrections, especially as BTC approaches psychological resistance levels around $100,000.
Key Metrics
Metric | Value (as of April 29) |
|---|---|
Bitcoin Price | $94,873 |
Hot Supply Value | ~$40 billion |
Supply in Profit | 86% |
NUPL | 0.53 |
Daily Active Addresses | Below historical bull market levels |
