INIT - Strongly increasing but why are we not considering short selling? Analysis and strategy

\u003ct-85/\u003e

\u003ct-112/\u003e

\u003cc-127/\u003e

\u003ct-45/\u003e

\u003ct-69/\u003e

Below is a detailed technical analysis of Initia (INIT) at the current time (April 29, 2025) and a proposed strategy for opening a short position, including an assessment of the probability of success based on technical indicators and market data:

📊 Technical analysis of INIT – Short selling signals

1. Current price and volatility

• Current price: $0.7931

• 24h volatility: Increased by 24.13%

• 24h trading volume: Approximately $297 million

• Market capitalization: Approximately $119.5 million

• Circulating supply: 149 million INIT 

2. Technical indicators

• RSI (14 days): Approximately 60 – indicating the market is in a state of 'greed', but not yet overbought.

• MACD: The MACD line is above the signal line, indicating that the uptrend is being maintained.

• Moving Average (MA):

• MA20: $0.74

• MA50: $0.68

• MA200: Not enough data due to INIT being recently listed.

3. Support and resistance levels

• Strong support: $0.63 – $0.65

• Nearby resistance: $0.83 – $0.85

• Strong resistance: $0.95 (all-time high)

📈 Strategy to open a short position

1. Entry point

• Suggested price: $0.84 – $0.85

• Reason: The price is approaching a strong resistance zone, reversal signals may appear.

2. Take Profit

• Target 1: $0.78

• Target 2: $0.74

• Target 3: $0.70

3. Stop Loss

• Suggested price: $0.86

• Reason: The price has surpassed the resistance zone, and may continue the uptrend.

📊 Probability of success of the short position

Based on technical indicators and current market data, the probability of success of the short position at the price level of $0.84 – $0.85 is estimated as follows:

• Probability of success: Approximately 60%

• Reason:

• The price is approaching a strong resistance zone, reversal signals may appear.

• The RSI indicates that the market is in a state of 'greed', but not yet overbought.

• Trading volume has increased significantly, which may lead to large price fluctuations.

⚠️ Important notice

• Risk management: Use leverage cautiously; high leverage can lead to significant liquidation risks.

• Follow the news: Update the latest information about the Initia project to timely adjust the strategy.

• Diversify the portfolio: Do not put all capital into a single asset to minimize risk.

\u003cc-133/\u003e