Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is regaining growth momentum as a macro hedge, with the correlation to gold returning to positive levels. As of April 25, the 30-day Pearson correlation between Bitcoin and gold is 0.54—up sharply from the low of -0.67 in February.

That reversal reflects a new linkage between two major safe-haven assets amid rising global instability. In February, Bitcoin fell 17% from $102,000 to $84,000, while gold rose from $2,800 to $2,850. That divergence caused a rare disruption in correlation, but it was only temporary.

Since March, Bitcoin has risen over 10%, while gold has increased by 5%, both tracking new demand for alternative stores of value. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index has fallen by 4%, reinforcing the appeal of inflation-hedging assets.

Historical data supports the likelihood of this "reunion" continuing. Since 2020, Bitcoin's correlation with gold has dropped below -0.50 on 18 occasions. In 17 of those instances, it recovered above 0.5 within a week.

Bitcoin outperforms gold, signaling a liquidity rotation

Bitcoin is not only re-linking with gold but is also starting to outperform gold. Macro analyst Ted (@TedPillows) noted this shift in a recent tweet:

"$BTC is catching up very quickly. Since the bottom, BTC has risen nearly 25% and is now outperforming Gold and SPX. Interestingly, Gold is trending down, which indicates that the liquidity rotation from Gold to BTC has begun. I've said it before: 'When Gold pumps, BTC pumps even harder.'"

This supports a broader narrative of capital rotating away from traditional safe havens into higher-beta assets as macro risk develops. Bitcoin's relative strength—combined with speculative upside potential—once again makes it the preferred choice for risk-seeking institutional players.

Key trends to watch:

  • BTC has outperformed gold and the S&P 500 since March

  • Correlation recovered from -0.67 to 0.54

  • Continued weakness of the U.S. Dollar Index

Trump's tariffs reignite 'Digital Gold' trade

Bitcoin's recovery also reflects recent macro developments. Following the announcement of President Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs, BTC surged over 10%, while gold increased by 5%. The U.S. Dollar Index fell by 4% in response, highlighting new pressures on confidence in fiat currency.

This macro backdrop reinforces Bitcoin's role as a hedge during periods of policy and geopolitical stress:

  • BTC up over 10%

  • Gold up 5%

  • DXY down 4%

With uncertainty over trade policy and upcoming economic data, investors are once again seeking opportunities to access scarce assets. The story of Bitcoin's digital scarcity is resonating once more.

Technical Setup: Bitcoin targets a breakout of $98K

Technically, Bitcoin is consolidating just below $95,000, holding above the uptrend line and 50 EMA ($94,015). Recent support around $93,760 has held twice, while resistance remains at $95,850. A confirmed breakout could open the door to $97,500 and $98,800.

For traders:

  • Entry Idea: Above $96,000 on volume

  • Stop Loss: Below $94,000

  • Upside Targets: $97,500 and $98,800

The MACD momentum is currently neutral, but any surge in volume could trigger a higher impulsive move. The trend remains intact, and historical correlation patterns suggest this could just be the beginning.