PI remains locked in a narrow sideways range, but weakening momentum indicators are signaling the potential for a collapse, as dilution risk weighs heavily on the circulating supply. Pi Network (PI) has traded within a sideways consolidation range since mid-April, fluctuating in a range of ~14% between $0.59 and $0.67. The price is currently testing the lower boundary of that range — currently at $0.58, increasing the risk of breaking lower.
RSI is at 38, significantly lower than the neutral level of 50 and not far from the oversold zone. MACD also shows signs of fatigue. Although the MACD line is still slightly above the signal line, they appear to be approaching a bearish crossover point, indicating the possibility of a momentum shift in the downward direction.
The declining price of PI and technical weakness may be supported by fundamental dilution risk. This month, 21.4 million PI tokens were unlocked, equivalent to ~12.3 million dollars at current market price. Although the April unlock may be relatively modest, investors may be pricing in larger unlocks in the future. The overall monthly unlocking trend indicates a steady increase in supply over time, with an expected average of over 131 million PI/month in the coming year.
Unless a major update is released or the PI Foundation burns a significant portion of the nearly 72 billion PI (71,991,181,249 π) held in their wallet, the risk of continued downward pressure on PI remains high.
