Solana (SOL) Market Analysis – Choppy but Constructive Structure
Overview:
Solana is maintaining a generally bullish structure despite choppy price action. The asset previously reacted strongly at the 161.8% Fibonacci extension in April and has since been developing a potential five-wave Elliott structure to the upside.
Technical Insights:
Primary Wave Count: Yellow count is preferred, suggesting SOL is in a developing 5-wave move (likely Wave 1 or Wave A).
Short-Term Behavior: Current structure shows sideways action after a likely top in Wave 3. Wave 4 may not be complete but is nearing final stages.
Pattern Watch: A possible head-and-shoulders pattern is forming. Breaking below April 24th’s low could trigger a deeper correction.
Support Zone: $141.86 – $135.22 (if Wave 4 deepens further)
Resistance Zone: Around previous highs, watching for bullish breakout continuation.
Trade Plan:
Entry 1 (Aggressive): $140 – $143 (pre-emptive buy in support zone)
Entry 2 (Conservative): $135 – $137 (deeper retracement, stronger confluence)
Stop-Loss: $129 (below invalidation and key support)
Target 1: $160 (resistance near Wave 3 top)
Target 2: $175 – $180 (Wave 5 extension zone)
Target 3 (Mid-term): $200+ (macro breakout if momentum sustains)
Strategy Note:
We remain cautiously bullish while monitoring how Wave 4 develops. A clean break and retest of support followed by upward momentum would increase confidence in the ongoing wave count. B waves are notorious for their unpredictability—stay adaptive.
Sentiment: Bullish bias with cautious stance until Wave 4 completes.
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