April 29, 2025 - Bitcoin has been oscillating around the $95,000 mark recently, with bullish market sentiment rising, and multiple favorable factors are driving it towards the $100,000 threshold.
Core upward momentum

1️⃣ Policy breakthroughs and institutional acceleration of layouts

- Local governments in the U.S. lead the trend: Arizona passes (Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Bill), allowing state governments to allocate 10% of public funds to Bitcoin, becoming the first state to incorporate cryptocurrency into financial management. Missouri, Texas, and others are following suit, promoting similar legislation.

- Strong bullish expectations from institutions: Standard Chartered predicts Bitcoin could rise to $120,000 in Q2 2025 and maintains a year-end target price of $200,000.

2️⃣ Funds and technical aspects working together

- Significant inflow of ETF funds: The weekly net inflow of spot Bitcoin ETFs exceeded $3.06 billion, setting a new high since 2025, with obvious signs of institutional accumulation.

- On-chain supply tightening: Exchange Bitcoin reserves continue to decline, with over $4 billion BTC withdrawn in the past week, tightening market liquidity.

- Technical formation improving: Bitcoin has stabilized above the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, and if it effectively breaks through the $95,000 resistance level, the next target looks towards $104,000.

3️⃣ Macro environment boosting market sentiment

- Federal Reserve policy expectations: Stable U.S. CPI data strengthens rate cut expectations, combined with potential tariff adjustment policies, investors view Bitcoin as a hedging tool.

- Market sentiment heating up: A surge in short-term trading positions indicates a rebound in speculative demand, and the market may be entering a 'FOMO phase.'

Potential risk reminders

⚠️ Technical pressure: There are dense sell orders in the range of $97,000 to $100,000, and a breakout may trigger profit-taking.

⚠️ Liquidity risk: The market saw a deep decline of 30% over the weekend, and large sell-offs can lead to drastic price fluctuations.

⚠️ Policy uncertainty: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency plans to impose a carbon tax on mining, which could increase miners' costs and suppress coin prices if implemented.

Key catalysts for the future market

🔹 Continuous inflow of ETF funds: If the daily net inflow exceeds $500 million, it may push for a short-term increase of 3-5%.

🔹 Geopolitical factors: Escalation of the Middle East situation may strengthen Bitcoin's safe-haven properties.

🔹 Confirmation of technical breakthrough: After stabilizing above $95,000, the medium to long-term target looks at the $120,000 to $200,000 range.

Analysts remind: Historical data shows that large ETF inflows may be accompanied by local tops, and investors should be wary of high volatility risks at elevated levels.

Key events to watch

📅 April 30 U.S. PCE inflation data

📅 May 1 ISM Manufacturing PMI

These macro indicators may become the 'catalyst' for a new round of market trends.