The determination of 'relative low position' in trading is closely related to the trading cycle.
If focusing on intraday short positions, $92,000 to $93,000 can be considered as low support. A drop below the lower bound of this range will trigger a stop-loss, while a rise to $95,000 to $96,000 can be a take-profit point, but it is crucial to ensure that position allocation matches the trading cycle.
For medium-term trading, one needs to have a forward-looking judgment on market trends.
Currently, at the 12-hour level, the RSI indicator is in the overbought zone, the MACD shows red bars, and there is a possibility of a crossover in the dual lines.
However, market trends do not necessarily have to turn downward — the main funds tend to be more patient; having already pushed prices upward, they are likely to sell at higher price levels or establish short positions to maximize profits.
Subsequent market trends may first form a technical divergence at the 12-hour level, accompanied by a slight pullback driving the daily MACD down, followed by another surge to new highs, and then constructing a divergence pattern at the daily level, ultimately initiating a more significant adjustment phase.
The market will not immediately enter a bear market; there are still many uncertainties in the subsequent trends.
