I often see those people trading coins, opening the candlestick chart, looking at the market, and drawing some lines.
Thus, we arrive at this conclusion:
1. We are currently bottoming out and a rebound is imminent; it's time to buy.
2. We are now at the top range, and a sharp decline is about to happen. It's time to sell.
3. This upward surge is very strong and is about to explode.
Suppose a situation arises with an asset, but at this moment the market suddenly announces that the interest rate cut is postponed until next year. Bitcoin and other mainstream cryptocurrencies start to plummet.
Then can an asset that conforms to this type of chart continue to rise? I don't think so. Doesn't that conclusion that this chart might rebound get broken? Just one possibility proves that this logic is wrong.
So perhaps he would say, I see chart analysis as probability; in this situation, there is an 80% chance of rising. I want to ask, what dimensions make up this 80% probability? Or is the chart based on past statistics? If you can use statistics, others can too; if everyone in the market knows, where is the cognitive difference, where is the profit? Without new factors that people don't know, why would this asset rise?
So regardless of whether situation 1, 2, or 3 occurs, using charts to bottom out is useless.
Of course, it might also rise after you buy and fall after you sell. The market is inherently about rising and falling; guessing correctly does not mean the strategy is effective.
Successfully bottoming out must be combined with successfully topping out; both together are what counts as impressive. Successfully bottoming out just means your buying cost is lower than mine. It doesn't represent a profitable outcome.
There is also one more factor: you need to buy more for it to be useful. But will a person with real money go bottom fishing in the market at this stage?
For those with little money, successfully bottoming out is useless; you have to repeatedly bottom out and top out for it to be useful? Can this really be done? And for those with a lot of money, they don't care about bottoming out at all.
My conclusion is that very few people can successfully bottom out. If everyone could successfully bottom out, then why would prices fall? He might say, I have the technology.
Well then, what if it doesn't drop to your bottom price and starts to rise? What do you do then? Wouldn't that mean you missed out on less profit?
Can the profits from less earned plus the profits from successfully bottoming out exceed the market's returns? I believe it definitely cannot.
Or someone might say, if it drops a little, I'll buy back, then I can buy more. I say: what if it doesn't drop, or directly crashes?
Can you use one strategy to face several possible situations and win decisively? This is obviously impossible.
So, are there people who have become wealthy through trading? Certainly, some are lucky, while others have the Holy Grail.
Those who master luck will make a profit in a bull market and then stop playing, exiting the crypto world to enjoy life; of course, it belongs to such people.
Also, the one who has the Holy Grail, since it is the Holy Grail, cannot say anything. Because if they do, it is no longer the Holy Grail.
If you have a way to turn stones into gold, would you share it with others?
If this technique can be learned by everyone, gold will soon lose its value. If people can't learn it, telling them won't help. Not to mention you wouldn't even want to say it.
The Holy Grail is unique. It cannot be replicated.
In market changes, it is possible to make some small money based on already known information.
My methodology is to filter out small coins that have not been listed on major exchanges but have contracts, with a market cap of 300-500 million USD, and a large number of unlocked tokens.
These coins, why can't they be listed on major exchanges? Clearly, the project's strength is insufficient, and with such a high market value, if they get listed, the project side must make money.
How to make money? By relying on others to take over and making money through arbitrage contracts. Given enough time, value will definitely return to its original state.
Then I need to collect this data, from the opening data, and after statistics, I find 5 small coins, 1 has skyrocketed. 4 are gradually falling.
I short 1000U each time. The maximum loss on a liquidation is 1000U. The profit each time is basically 300-500U. Then I just close the position.
I profit from 4, I lose 1. Overall, there's still a profit. If I keep doing this, I can make some money, right? It's like playing a game for fun.
Even if this strategy changes later and I lose money, I haven't lost much; I just won't play.
This is making decisions based on already known information.
Making decisions based on unknown information. That's not something we can do.
Do you think these people have some magical abilities? Not really. If you grasp information unknown to the market, you can also make money. Buy in advance, and when the news is released, just sell, right?
If a person can continuously obtain this unpublished information and participates, then he will definitely make a fortune.
But we ordinary people don’t know this information and can still make money.
Can a person's insider trading withstand the trend of a bull market? Can his schemes allow him to earn more on a particular asset?
Any coin that cannot resist schemes and tricks is what is called a garbage coin. It is unrelated to the overall trend. Just don't choose it.
And without information, we cannot choose; we can only hold on until the bull market ends.
Isn't the return we earn on this asset more than his?
No one can take all the benefits from the market; I don't believe in bottoming, topping, or hundredfold coins.
A person who can casually use their brain to take advantage of others is always stealing from others. That person is not far from being taken down.
The world will not allow people like you to exist.
#Strategy增持比特币 #Strategy增持比特币 #AI概念币领跑
