This year, the narrative around Bitcoin prices has fluctuated between the correlation with 'gold' and 'Nasdaq.' The short-term correlation is highly misleading; the exhaustion of retail selling, the trend of corporate accumulation, and the inflow of ETF funds are the key indicators that may drive 'supply tightening' and lead to new price highs.

Last week, Twenty One Capital announced an initial accumulation of 42,000 BTC (approximately $4 billion), joining the ranks of companies like Strategy in the competitive landscape. Currently, around 80 companies collectively hold 700,000 BTC, accounting for 3.4% of the total supply.

Last week, the net inflow into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $3 billion, a five-month high, with total holdings accounting for 5.5% of Bitcoin's circulating supply. The institutional share increased from 20% in September last year to 33%, with 48% held by investment advisors, reflecting asset allocation demand. Combined with corporate holdings, institutional capital now controls 9% of Bitcoin's supply.

If the U.S. government implements a strategic reserve, it may trigger sovereign nations to compete in accumulating Bitcoin. The proportion of BTC balances on exchanges has decreased from 16% at the end of 2023 to 13%, but some assets have only been transferred to ETF custodians. $BTC $ETH