Do you think there are two hundred thousand people in the crypto space now?
【Rational Bitcoin Investment Advice】
Market Cycle Rules:
Historical data shows that when market sentiment is low (such as quiet trading venues and reduced discussions on social media), it often corresponds to asset prices in a low range. That old lady's "bicycle strategy" essentially observes market sentiment as a contrarian indicator; this idea of "be greedy when others are fearful" is also of reference value in the crypto market.
Current Market Observation:
Price Position: Bitcoin has indeed entered a value investment range after retracting from historical highs, but bottom judgment must be combined with:
On-chain data (MVRV ratio, holding distribution)
Macroeconomics (Federal Reserve policy, inflation data)
Industry fundamentals (hashrate changes, institutional holdings)
Investor Status:
Stuck Positions: Those who entered at the high point in 2021 may face more than 50% unrealized losses.
New Capital: Institutional investors continue to allocate through channels like ETFs.
Market Sentiment: The Fear and Greed Index is recently below 30 (December 2023 data).
Risk Control Recommendations:
Position Management:
Only invest spare money that you can afford to lose completely.
Single asset allocation should not exceed 5-10% of total assets.
Adopt a phased investment strategy (e.g., increase holdings every time there is a 10% drop).
Cognitive Preparation:
Bitcoin's volatility often exceeds 10% within 24 hours.
Historical maximum drawdown exceeded 80% (2018).
Be prepared psychologically to hold for 3-5 years.
Industry Trend Judgment:
User Base: Approximately 400 million holding addresses globally (2023 Chainalysis data), but active investors are less than 10%.
Development Stage: The maturity of infrastructure (custody, derivatives) is equivalent to the internet level in 1998.
Policy Risk: The global regulatory framework has yet to unify, with potential black swan events.
Decision Framework Recommendations:
[Reasons to Buy] should be based on:
□ Personal risk tolerance assessment
□ Long-term faith in blockchain technology
□ Strict stop-loss discipline
□ Portfolio rebalancing plan
And not on:
□ FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) emotions
□ Short-term price trend predictions
□ Unverified market rumors
Remember: The market will always reward patient contrarians, but the premise is to survive until the next cycle. Whether you see an opportunity or a trap depends on your investment horizon and depth of understanding.
