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The turning point has arrived

03176120625's early morning daily line closed above 94500, and it has been in a sideways fluctuation for 7 days. A turning point is imminent. Currently, the MACD on the 5-day level is about to make a choice, while the short-term 12-8-6-4 hour levels are in adjustment. The daily closing indicates a strong intention to force a bullish close.

Impact of data: Tomorrow night, the ADP employment figures will be released, along with the annual rate of the PCE price index, and the non-farm payroll data on May 2. These are key factors affecting whether the market can effectively break through 95000 or confirm a pullback to 90500.

In April, stablecoin data continued to rise. As of April 19, 2025, the supply of USDT increased from 138 billion USD at the beginning of the year to 145 billion USD. By April 25, Tether's market share was about 66%. On April 23, according to Whale Alert monitoring, Tether issued an additional 1 billion USDT on the TRON network, and the Tether CEO stated that this issuance was for inventory replenishment.

Regarding USDC, as of April 19, its supply had surged to nearly 61 billion USD, a significant increase of 17 billion USD from 44 billion USD at the start of the year, with a growth rate of 38.6%. On April 21, Circle issued an additional 250 million USDC on the Solana network. So far in 2025, they have minted 12.75 billion USDC on Solana. On April 25, according to Jinse Finance, USDC's market capitalization surpassed 61.7 billion USD, setting a new historical high.

The global cryptocurrency market's total market cap has also reached a critical point of 3 trillion USD. This is the level that broke below the range point in late February. Funds that were avoiding the market gradually returned in early April. However, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are still uncertain, and the market is speculating about a rate cut in June. Bitcoin's market cap remains high at a 63% market share, while Ethereum's market cap is at 7.39%. Even with increased speculation, it has failed to effectively break through the 1800 mark, which is somewhat disappointing.

For other sectors and individual coins, except for SUI, coins in the 81651555068 series, DOGE series, and second-layer coins have also adjusted 50-70%, with rebounds insufficient to even cover a third of the declines. Currently, there is a bullish sentiment in the market, but it overlooks market risks. Bitcoin's sideways fluctuation has led to very little catch-up from altcoins. Individual small coins are taking turns to surge, attracting a lot of retail investors to chase the rise. However, to truly break through, positive support and capital injection are needed, especially in the transition between the end of the month and the beginning of the next. Choosing to avoid risk may be safer, and it is better to observe the market trends after various data are released to choose a more stable direction.