This week will be very lively
On Wednesday, focus on the US April ADP employment (previous value 184,000) and the revised Q1 GDP (initial value 1.6%). On Friday, the non-farm payroll night will reveal the unemployment rate (current value 3.8%) and non-farm employment numbers (previous value 303,000).
These three sets of data will form a key puzzle piece in assessing the "soft landing" quality of the US economy.
Currently, the market is betting on two major trading logic:
Inflation resilience verification: If the PCE price index (core PCE current value 2.8%) falls as expected, it will strengthen the Fed's rate cut expectations in September, and the expectation of liquidity easing may push risk assets to break through economic recession warnings:
If GDP growth is revised down and employment data significantly weakens, then one should be wary of the "stagflation" trade reigniting,
Operational advice:
Before data release: It is recommended to keep the BTC/ETH position ratio within 60%, reserving 40% cash to cope with volatility.
After data release:
If a "cooling job market + falling inflation" combination occurs, pay special attention to DeFi blue chips (such as AAVE, COMP) and AI sector leaders (such as ARKM, FET).
If the data is stronger than expected, be on guard for the pullback risk brought about by "delayed rate cut expectations", and set a 5% hard stop loss for spot positions.
(Old hands understand: Data week is always a battleground for "real money", better to miss than to make mistakes.)
If you do not understand risk control, suitable entry points, and good position management,
you can call me. Follow me, and let me bring you an unprecedented experience in the crypto world!
