America on the brink of recession: tariffs could be the 'last straw'?
According to Apollo, current tariff measures will cause the U.S. to experience a large-scale supply chain crisis similar to that of the Covid period, and the chain of events leading to economic recession has already begun:
1️⃣ 2/4: The U.S. imposes tariffs on Chinese goods, causing container shipments to the U.S. to decline sharply. Incoming containers to the U.S. gradually run out after 20-40 days, and the supply of goods begins to be interrupted.
2️⃣ Early May: Distribution of goods from ports to cities is expected to be congested, leading to shelves beginning to empty.
3️⃣ Mid/late May: Transportation companies may witness a dramatic drop in revenue as shipping demand plummets.
4️⃣ Late May/early June: Mass layoffs in the transportation and retail sectors are likely to occur.
5️⃣ Late June: The U.S. economy is expected to officially enter recession.
Leaders of major companies have also issued warnings:
- CFO of PepsiCo: "Compared to three months ago, consumer sentiment has worsened significantly."
- CEO of Southwest Airlines: "I'm not sure if people would call this a recession, but my industry has certainly fallen into one."
- CEO of Chipotle: "Due to economic instability, consumers are tightening their spending and reducing their frequency of visits to our restaurants."
With 71 days left before the deadline for tariff implementation ends, if there are no timely intervention measures, could the summer of 2025 be the time when America falls into recession?