In a bold new forecast, leading research firm Bernstein has asserted that Bitcoin’s momentum shows no signs of slowing, setting an ambitious target of $1 million by 2033. The analysts, led by Gautam Chhugani, argue that the era of expecting significant price declines in Bitcoin($BTC ) may be over, as powerful institutional forces reshape the market.
According to reporting by The Block, Bernstein analysts point to an impending “supply squeeze” fueled by aggressive institutional accumulation and accelerating ETF inflows. Unlike previous cycles heavily influenced by retail sentiment, the current phase is being driven by sophisticated players entering Bitcoin at scale.
Chhugani’s team highlighted that correlations between Bitcoin and traditional asset classes have become increasingly unreliable and short-term. Instead, they advise focusing on three critical indicators: waning retail selling pressure, a rapidly expanding institutional accumulation race, and renewed strength in ETF inflows.
A recent example of this institutional fervor is the launch of Twenty One Capital, a Bitcoin treasury initiative backed by heavyweights like SoftBank, Tether, Bitfinex, and Cantor Fitzgerald. With a target of accumulating 42,000 BTC, Twenty One Capital is set to mirror the strategy employed by MicroStrategy, albeit starting with a more modest capital base. Analysts noted that Twenty One could benefit significantly from Tether’s expected $13 billion earnings from its $148 billion USDT reserves in 2024 alone.
The competition among institutional players is intensifying. Bernstein’s data reveals that around 80 companies now collectively hold 700,000 BTC, roughly 3.4% of Bitcoin’s total supply. When Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasuries are included, institutional holdings surge to approximately 9% of the total supply—a clear sign of deepening market maturity.
A U.S. Bitcoin Purchase: The Ultimate Catalyst?
Bernstein analysts also floated a provocative scenario: a large-scale Bitcoin acquisition by the U.S. government. Such a move, they argue, is not yet priced into the market but could act as a massive catalyst, triggering competitive accumulation among other nation-states and pushing Bitcoin prices to unprecedented heights.
Bernstein’s Bold Price Roadmap for Bitcoin
Summarizing their bullish outlook, Bernstein’s latest projections see Bitcoin reaching:
$200,000 by the end of 2025
$500,000 by 2029
$1 million by 2033
This trajectory, analysts emphasize, will be driven by a rare combination of strong demand dynamics and Bitcoin’s inherently limited supply.
As institutional adoption accelerates and supply becomes scarcer, Bitcoin’s next chapter may well be its most transformative yet.