🇺🇸 US Q1 Economic Data Preview: Markets Hold Their Breath 🇺🇸
On April 30, the US will release the preliminary estimate of Q1 GDP and core PCE data. The Atlanta Fed predicts a GDP decline of 2.5%, while Goldman Sachs expects a slight increase of 0.1%. If negative growth occurs, it may trigger risk aversion, transmitting pressure to the stock and cryptocurrency markets. If core PCE is higher than expected, it could push up bond yields and hurt risk assets.
In early May, initial jobless claims, manufacturing PMI, and non-farm payroll data will be released consecutively. EY expects job additions in April to significantly slow to 50,000, with the unemployment rate possibly rising to 5%. Signs of economic slowdown may boost rate cut expectations, but inflationary pressures still leave the Federal Reserve cautious.
Regarding corporate earnings reports, Amazon and Apple will release their results after the market closes on April 30. Amazon's AWS growth and tariff impacts are key, while Apple needs to demonstrate resilience to boost market confidence. Following that, giants like Microsoft, Meta, and PepsiCo will also successively announce their earnings reports, potentially further increasing market volatility.