1. Core points of the 4-hour level: The strategic significance of 1801
The 4-hour K-line cycle is an important time window for judging Ethereum's short-term trend, effectively filtering out intraday noise while accurately capturing trend turning points. Currently, the price level of 1801 plays a key role as the 'deciding factor' between bulls and bears in the 4-hour level, with its support and resistance conversion dominating market development.
(1) Bullish dominance: The upward logic of stabilizing above 1801
If the 4-hour K-line continues to close above 1801, it means that the bulls have the initiative in the key point contest, and the short-term upward trend is expected to continue. At this time, minor corrections can be seen as a consolidation phase in the upward journey, where main funds wash out floating positions and digest profits to accumulate energy for the subsequent upward attack. Technically, if the MACD indicator synchronously shows a golden cross above the zero line and trading volume moderately increases, it will further confirm the bullish advantage.
Upward resistance ladder:
1. First resistance level 1830: This position is a strong resistance area that the price has tested multiple times recently, with previous trapped positions and short-term profit-taking positions gathering here. If it breaks strongly, it will break the oscillating pattern, open up short-term upward space, and attract more capital to enter.
2. Second resistance level 1856: This level not only coincides with the key Fibonacci retracement level (such as 61.8%) but also resonates with the important moving average resistance level on the daily chart, constituting an important test for the medium-term trend. Breaking through here means the bulls successfully crossed a key resistance zone.
3. Third resistance level 1881: As a key psychological level for the long-term trend, 1881 corresponds to a historical trading volume concentration area. Once effectively broken, it may trigger market chasing sentiment, pushing Ethereum to launch an attack towards higher targets.
(2) Bearish dominance: Risk of a pullback below 1801
If the 4-hour K-line closing price falls below 1801, it will trigger a short-term trend reversal signal, indicating that the 4-hour level enters a pullback cycle. This break may trigger a chain reaction: technical stop-loss orders concentratedly pouring out, market sentiment turning from optimistic to cautious, and capital flows experiencing a phase reversal. If the break is accompanied by a surge in trading volume and a high-level death cross in the KDJ indicator, the pullback risk will further intensify.
Downward support defense line:
1. First support level 1780: As an area near recent lows, 1780 has a 'natural absorption effect', with previous stabilizations here gathering a large amount of bottom-fishing funds, providing initial cushioning.
2. Second support level 1755: This point is the 200-period moving average support level on the 4-hour chart, and it overlaps with the key support area on the daily chart. Once breached, it will break both the technical and psychological defenses, exacerbating market panic.
3. Third support level 1721: As a strong support fortress, 1721 resonates with the important bottom formation of Ethereum and is close to the integer level of 1700, serving as the last defensive position for the bulls. If effectively broken, caution is needed for deeper adjustments.
2. Dynamic trading strategy construction
(1) Bullish trading plan
1. Positioning timing: After the 4-hour closing price stabilizes above 1801, you can lightly enter when a stop decline signal (such as a small bullish candle or doji) appears on the 15-minute or 30-minute K-line; or wait for the price to break through 1830 and confirm with a pullback before increasing the position.
2. Take profit target: phased take profit, the first target is 1830, the second target is 1856, the ultimate target is 1881.
3. Stop-loss setting: With 1801 as the core defense line, set the stop-loss at the 1795 - 1790 range to avoid false breakout risks.
(2) Bearish trading plan
1. Positioning timing: After the 4-hour closing price falls below 1801, you can set up short positions when the price retraces to the 1801 - 1807 range; or wait for a valid break below 1780 to chase shorts.
2. Take profit target: sequentially looking at 1780, 1755, 1721.
3. Stop-loss setting: Set the stop-loss at 1807 - 1812 to prevent losses from rapid price rebounds.
3. Risk control and monitoring of external factors
(1) Market risk warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, with daily fluctuations reaching over 10%, and is significantly influenced by news. It is recommended that investors strictly control their positions (single position not exceeding 10% of total capital) and adopt a 'phased positioning + dynamic stop-loss' strategy to avoid significant capital drawdown due to extreme market conditions.
(2) Key influencing factors tracking
1. Macroeconomic dynamics: Closely monitor the minutes of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting, global inflation data, the trend of the US dollar index, etc., as changes in macro liquidity will directly affect the capital flow in the cryptocurrency market.
2. Industry policy risk: The regulatory attitudes of various countries towards blockchain and cryptocurrencies (such as the SEC's classification of tokens in the US and the EU's MiCA legislation) may trigger significant market fluctuations, requiring real-time tracking of policy dynamics.
Summary:
Today's Ethereum market focus is on the key price level of 1801 and the bulls and bears contesting it. If the 4-hour closing price stabilizes at this position, the bulls are expected to continue their offensive, challenging the pressure zone of 1830 - 1881; if it falls below 1801, the short-term trend will turn to a pullback, and the lower support levels of 1780 - 1721 will be tested. Everyone needs to closely monitor the 4-hour K-line patterns, technical indicator signals, and changes in volume, combined with trading strategies and risk control measures for rational market participation. Remember!$ETH #以太坊走势 
