This week, the earnings season for US stocks has fully launched, with tech giants' earnings exceeding expectations. Microsoft (MSFT) reported a 17% year-on-year revenue growth, while Google (GOOGL) announced its first-ever dividend and initiated a $70 billion buyback plan, pushing the NASDAQ index above 15,800 points, rapidly increasing market risk appetite.
Bitcoin surged accordingly, with the latest price at $95,348, a daily fluctuation exceeding 2.5%, briefly touching a new high of $95,348 before slightly retreating. Ethereum also moved up, quoted at $1,816, but its growth was significantly weaker than Bitcoin's.
The market appears lively on the surface, but upon closer inspection, risks are quietly accumulating.
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【1. Capital Momentum: US Stocks Absorb Capital Significantly, Crypto Circle Lacks Increment】
• Latest EPFR data shows that net inflows into tech stock funds reached $4.8 billion last week, marking the sixth consecutive week of growth;
• During the same period, net inflows into crypto asset funds were $430 million, down 12% month-on-month;
• BTC balance on exchanges has dropped to its lowest level in nearly 17 months, appearing optimistic on the surface, but the proportion of short-term arbitrage trades is increasing.
Derivation:
Despite BTC breaking $95,000, compared to the capital absorption of US stocks, the overall incremental funds in the crypto circle are weak. The current rise resembles rotation of existing funds rather than the start of a new bull market.
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【2. On-chain Indicators: High Cashing-out Pressure is Accumulating】
• The number of active BTC addresses on-chain has reached a new high, but the pace of new capital entering the market is slowing down.
• Short-term holders' SOPR (Selling, Overhead, and Profit Ratio) has risen to 1.15, indicating that short-term holders are taking profits and exiting;
• The number of large transactions (>100 BTC) has seen a slight increase in the 7-day average, suggesting that institutions are adjusting their positions at high levels.
Derivation:
High-level trading volume is expanding, cashing-out pressure is accumulating, and significant volatility or even false breakouts are likely in the short term.
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【3. Macroeconomic Pressure: Strong Dollar and High Interest Rates Continue to Suppress】
• US Dollar Index (DXY) latest at 106.2, operating strongly;
• March PCE year-on-year growth rate recorded at 3.4%, higher than market expectations;
• Fed's rate cut expectations pushed to September or later, liquidity easing has yet to arrive.
Derivation:
In an environment of a strong dollar and high interest rates, the crypto circle, as a non-interest-bearing risk asset, has limited upward valuation space; it is difficult to rely on macro liquidity to further drive prices higher in the short term.
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【Summary and Operational Suggestions】
Currently, Bitcoin is above $95,000, but incremental funds are weak, short-term cashing-out pressure is increasing, and the macro environment's suppression has not eased.
This leads to a tendency for market volatility to increase after a short-term surge.
Technical Observations:
• Resistance level above: $95,800-$96,500 range (congested trading zone).
• Support level below: $92,500-$93,000 (first support); if it breaks, watch for $90,800.
【Strategic Suggestions】
• Holders: Gradually reduce positions in batches to lock in some profits;
• Short-term traders: Be cautious in chasing highs; consider small positions in the 92,500-93,000 range for buying on dips, with strict stop-losses;
• Macro investors: Wait for clear shifts in Fed policy and a pullback in the dollar index before seeking more cost-effective opportunities to increase positions.
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【Summary in One Sentence】
Bitcoin's rise to $95,000 is not the endgame; insufficient funds and macro pressures remain, and one should be wary of severe fluctuations at high levels in the short term.