Economic data release this week

1. Wednesday Q1 GDP, previous value 2.4, expected 0.4. The timing of the recession next year depends on how much it declines. If it is higher than expected, it will rise first and then fall again. This is due to an overall recession.

2. Wednesday Core PCE

3. Wednesday PMI

4. Wednesday ADP Non-Farm Payroll

5. Thursday Japan's interest rate

6. Friday Non-Farm Payroll

7. Friday Unemployment Rate

Clearly, there is an economic recession. Due to tariffs, the U.S. has seen a preemptive stockpiling consumption, which has improved economic data temporarily; however, the impact will emerge in the coming months. The U.S. government has paused hiring, and the unemployment rate will look unfavorable. If the unemployment rate increases, it indicates economic recession, and the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates in June. If there is a rate cut this time, it may rise first and then fall more. The main concern is that the rate cut acknowledges the economic recession, and the financial market will continue to decline. At that point, it will be necessary to enter the market gradually; if the Federal Reserve expands its balance sheet afterward, there will be a rebound.

Recently, it is better to build and then collect, without attachment; it is not suitable for long-term investment right now.