BTC rebound, altcoins diverge, new cycle singularity???

A series of policies from Trump have triggered pessimism in global markets, a sentiment that is clearly visible in various candlestick trends, with global markets once falling into the oversold zone.

However, against this backdrop, the political landscape has shown a mild turn, and market sentiment has somewhat warmed up. During this warming process, I noticed a detail: when BTC rebounded, the vast majority of altcoins did not rise in sync, showing a clear divergence.

Generally speaking, Bitcoin, as the leader of the crypto market, drives the movement of altcoins, and sometimes the fluctuations of altcoins are even greater.

But this time, while Bitcoin warms up, the vast majority of altcoins react sluggishly, which means that

the deep structure of the market is changing.

From a technical perspective:

Bitcoin has broken through a key resistance level and is above the 200-day bull-bear dividing line;

Currently, the price of Bitcoin has stabilized above 90k for a week, with a low probability of a short-term reversal.

However, the overall altcoin market has still not reached the expected position.

Looking back at history and past trading experiences, this divergence between BTC and altcoins often signifies the starting point of a new trend.

My view:

This divergence may represent a true trend reversal, a singularity in a new market cycle. (However, there might still be a pullback in May; short-term, it remains a rebound, not a reversal.)

Considering the pace of liquidity release, I expect this market cycle to last for 4 months, with altcoins being the main focus.

In the second half of the bull market, those institutions on Wall Street may turn to operate ETH as the main line for the market, thereby driving altcoins to surge (after all, there is enough room for it), ultimately cutting the retail investors who recently swapped various altcoins for BTC to save themselves. I think this possibility is quite high.

More importantly, the policy landscape is also quietly changing:

In the past, global governments had a conservative attitude towards blockchain, such as China's ban, the EU's MiCA framework, and the strong regulation from the former SEC chairman in the U.S.;

However, the assumption of the new SEC chairman may become an important signal for a reversal in regulatory direction;

In the future, more tokens may be listed through U.S. stock ETFs, combined with global fiat currency inflation and liquidity release, which is expected to push the market to new heights.

Of course, the large-scale listing of ETFs is also a double-edged sword:

Capital-driven bubbles may collapse like the internet bubble in 2000, but they may also give rise to a new order after the bubble.