Bitcoin (BTC) is gearing up for a big week of U.S. macro data, as crypto market participants warn of serious volatility to follow.
Bitcoin retests $92,000 after a promising weekly close, but traders still see a deeper BTC price correction on the way.
A week full of U.S. macro data comes with the Federal Reserve under pressure on multiple fronts.
The Fed is handcuffed, argues the analysis, predicting falling interest rates, increased liquidity, and BTC/USD reaching $180,000 within eighteen months.
Short-term Bitcoin holders are back in the green, making current price levels especially relevant for speculative investors.
Sentiment is in neutral territory, but crowd-based FOMO may prevent the price from rising much further, the research concludes.
Bitcoin traders await support retest.
Bitcoin is circulating at several-month highs as the week begins, having tested $92,000 as support after the weekly close.
That close itself was optimistic, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirm, coming in just above the key annual opening level of $93,500.
#BTC
Can Bitcoin do this?
Bitcoin could close weekly above $93,500 to start the process of regaining the previous range? $BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/r5reRJ0HFy pic.twitter.com/5ga0gcSqX4
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) April 27, 2025
Predicting an "interesting week" ahead, popular trader CrypNuevo pointed out the potential for higher highs for BTC/USD.
"Pretty simple - I don't see the momentum reversing yet and it’s possible to see a third leg up to $97k where there’s some liquidity," he wrote in a thread on X.
"Eventually, we should see a retest of the 4H50EMA that could be potential support."
CrypNuevo referred to the 50-period exponential moving average (EMA) on 4-hour intervals, currently at $91,850.
On the topic of likely support retests, fellow trader Roman had a deeper pullback in mind.
"Waiting to see what happens at 88k," he told followers on X.
"I’m not a believer in breaking the $94k resistance anytime soon."
Roman reiterated that the stochastic relative strength index (RSI) remained strongly overbought, a sign that a cooling period for the price may follow.
Trader and commentator Skew, in turn, focused on the area between $90,000 and $92,000, describing "indecision" in the market resulting in the current price action.
GDP and PCE prints highlight the big macro week.
It's a decisive time for U.S. macroeconomic data and inflation progress this week, with a series of numbers coming in quickly.
Q1 GDP, non-farm payrolls, and tech earnings are all scheduled, but the highlight will be the Federal Reserve's "preferred" inflation index, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index.
Scheduled to be released on April 30, both the PCE and GDP precede the monthly candle close, setting the stage for volatility in crypto and risk assets.
The stakes are already high — U.S. trade tariffs have resulted in wild swings both up and down for crypto, stocks, and commodities, with no end in sight for now.
"This has been one of the most volatile years in history: The S&P 500 saw a 2% move in either direction on 23% of trading days, or at least once a week so far this year," noted trading source The Kobeissi Letter as part of ongoing analysis on X.
"This is the highest reading since 2022, when participation hit 29% for the full year. In comparison, the long-term average was twice a month."
Inflation expectations are a key topic as markets see interest rate cuts starting in June, despite the Fed itself remaining in an aggressive position.
The latest data from CME Group's FedWatch tool shows divergent opinions on what will result from the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
On the other hand, the May FOMC meeting is almost unanimously expected to keep the Fed's interest rate unchanged.
"Evidence of a strong labor market and concerns over how tariffs could impact inflation outlook are keeping the Fed on hold when it comes to interest rates," wrote trading firm Mosaic Asset in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, "The Market Mosaic," on April 27.
Referencing FedWatch, Mosaic noted that "the market's implied chances are starting to shift in favor of more rate cuts by the end of the year."
Crypto executive reaffirms BTC price target of $180K.
Existing macro data is already causing a stir for crypto market participants watching the long-term implications of the Fed's current policy.
In his latest analysis on X, hedge fund founder Dan Tapiero had a bold price prediction for BTC over the next eighteen months.
"BTC at 180k before summer '26," he summarized.
Tapiero pointed to recent Fed research showing manufacturing expectations deteriorating at a record pace, calling the results "hard to ignore."
"Future market inflation indicators are collapsing into the danger zone," he continued in a separate post about the outlook for the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI).
In both cases, Tapiero concluded that Bitcoin and risk assets will benefit from increased market liquidity — a theory already popular in the context of the record M2 money supply.
"Liquidity is coming as real rates are very restrictive due to fiscal tightening," he added about current interest rates.
Bitcoin speculators take profits.
Short-term Bitcoin holders (STHs) are once again in the spotlight at current prices, thanks to the influence of their aggregate cost basis on market trajectory.
As Cointelegraph often reports, the cost basis, also known as realized price, reflects the average price at which speculative investors entered the market.
This level, which covers buyers in the last six months, but is also broken down into various subcategories, is particularly important in Bitcoin bull markets.
"Today, when we look at the current situation, we can see that the price has reached the STH Realized Price," wrote CryptoMe, a contributor to the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, in one of his "Quicktake" blog posts on the topic.
CryptoQuant shows that the combined STH cost basis is currently around $92,000, making it a key level to maintain as support from here on.
"One of the key on-chain conditions for a bull run is that the price remains above the STH Realized Price. If the price is below the Realized Prices, we can't really talk about a bull run," explains CryptoMe.
"If this bull run is to continue, it must meet these conditions."
The STH cost basis was lost as support in March, with the recent BTC price recovery having an almost instantaneous impact on its most recent buyers.
STH-owned coins moving on-chain earlier this month, in turn, led to forecasts of renewed volatility in the market.
Research warns about the greed-induced "local top."
After hitting a three-month peak last week, greed within crypto is on the radar as a price influence this week.
The latest data from the Crypto Fear and Greed Index confirms a peak of 72/100 on April 25, implying that crypto market sentiment approached "extreme greed."
Now back in "neutral" territory, the Index has led research firm Santiment to warn of a potential local price top.
"Data shows an increase in crowd optimism as $BTC recovered above $95K for the first time since February," he told followers on X.
"As for the level of greed measured on social media, this is the highest peak of optimistic posts (vs. pessimistic) since the night Trump was elected on November 5, 2024."
An accompanying chart covered what Santiment describes as "excitement and FOMO" peaking as a result of BTC's price recovery.
"The level of greed vs. fear of the crowd will likely influence whether a local top forms (because the crowd gets too greedy), or whether crypto can continue to decouple from the S&P 500 (because the crowd tries to prematurely take profits)," he added.
