#美股财报周来袭 Friends, this week's 'earnings + policy + data' triple test for US stocks is undoubtedly the most exciting 'accelerator' for the crypto market in 2025! With tech giants all submitting their reports, even macroeconomic data is joining in the 'excitement.' Today, let's discuss how this 'earthquake in US stocks' will affect the crypto market, which cryptocurrencies may 'reverse' against the wind, and which sectors to be cautious of 'stepping on mines'!
1. Tech Giants Earnings Reports: The 'life and death speed' of AI tokens
Nvidia (after market on April 30)
As the 'global leader' in AI chips, Nvidia's earnings report serves as a 'barometer' for the crypto market's sentiment. Recently, AI tokens (such as FET, TAO, RENDER) have shown early signs of activity—FET surged 70% in a week, and TAO broke through $350. The market is betting on the smooth mass production of Nvidia's Blackwell chips and the continued explosion of demand for AI computing power. But be cautious, Bank of America warns that Nvidia's performance may be 'disappointing,' with implied volatility on options reaching 10%, suggesting that the stock price may fluctuate by 10% in either direction. If the earnings report falls short of expectations, AI tokens may plunge dramatically!
Microsoft (after market on April 30)
The growth of Microsoft's Azure cloud services directly impacts confidence in the AI sector. Recently, Microsoft has spent heavily on AI computing power, with capital expenditures increasing by 23% in the first quarter. If this 'gamble' succeeds, Bitcoin may rebound as risk appetite warms. But don't forget, Microsoft's partnership with OpenAI is still in the 'burning cash phase'; if Azure's growth slows, the crypto market may end up 'drinking the northwest wind.'
Apple (after market on May 1)
Apple's earnings report has a more subtle impact on the crypto market—tariffs have increased iPhone supply chain costs by 12%; if Apple quietly raises prices, it may suppress demand for consumer electronics, indirectly dragging down the semiconductor sector (like TSMC), thereby affecting AI computing power expectations. However, Apple's sales in the Greater China region grew against the trend by 8%; if the earnings report exceeds expectations, it may drive a rebound in US stocks and provide 'blood transfusions' to the crypto market.
2. Macroeconomic Data: The Federal Reserve's 'double-edged sword'
The 'script' of GDP and non-farm data
The GDP data on April 30 (expected +0.1%) and the non-farm employment data on May 2 (expected +130,000) will determine the direction of the Federal Reserve's policies. If the data is weak, the market may bet on an earlier rate cut, benefiting Bitcoin; but if the data is strong, the Fed may extend its balance sheet reduction, strengthening the dollar and suppressing cryptocurrencies. Historically, Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 is around 0.4; if US stocks rebound due to strong data, the crypto market may 'rise with the tide and not fall with the tide.'
The 'warning' of the VIX Fear Index
The current VIX index has risen to 29, 65% higher than usual, indicating that market volatility is at a high level. As a high-risk asset, the crypto market may amplify volatility—for example, in February 2024, Bitcoin rose 13% in one day during US stock fluctuations but subsequently fell 9% due to panic. It is advisable to be prepared with a 'seatbelt' and hedge risks using ETFs (like GBTC) or options.
3. Pitfall Guide: Which cryptocurrencies should you avoid?
High-risk minefields
- AI concept tokens: FET, TAO, and others have recently risen too much; if Nvidia's earnings report is disappointing, they may be 'cut in half.'
- Projects relying on traditional supply chains: Tokens on logistics chains may decline due to supply chain disruptions caused by tariffs.
- High-leverage altcoins: Increased market volatility may trigger a chain reaction of liquidations, as seen on April 7 when over 440,000 people were liquidated for $1.38 billion.
High Prosperity Sector
- AI and cloud computing-related tokens: such as Render (RENDER) and Fetch.ai (FET), which will benefit from the long-term growth in computing power demand.
- Safe-haven assets: Bitcoin may temporarily serve as 'digital gold' during trade wars, especially when US stocks plummet.
- Layer-2 protocols: such as Optimism (OP) and Arbitrum (ARB), the demand for Ethereum scaling may become more pronounced due to weakness in US tech stocks.
4. Mastering Earnings Week: 3 Practical Tips
1. Pay attention to after-hours trading: After the earnings reports from Microsoft and Apple, the volatility in after-hours trading may carry over to the crypto market. For example, after Nvidia's earnings report in August 2024, AI tokens fluctuated by more than 10% the next day.
2. Focus on CEO 'pie in the sky': Zuckerberg's LLaMA4 model and Bezos's AWS strategy may influence crypto market expectations more than the earnings numbers.
3. Hedge with derivatives: Buy Bitcoin put options (like Deribit) or short US stock ETFs (like SQQQ) to hedge against the risk of a US stock market crash.
Alright, the big show of US stocks is about to begin this week, get your notebook ready, fasten your seatbelt, and let's witness history together! Remember: Earnings season is both a 'mirror to reflect demons' and a 'treasure trove'; seize the opportunity, and you could be the next 'winner in the crypto world'! 💰✨