I hope that a casual answer can awaken some people who are deeply confused, and if you can see it, you are not unlucky. This article is full of extreme opinions, don’t argue; if you argue, you are right.
Habitually stating the obvious: all trading strategies, methods, mentalities, and philosophies that retail investors can access are worthless and useless.
Trading based on technical analysis is gambling; there's no need to deceive yourself.
First of all, the upper limit of any strategy’s expected profit is actually 50%. Strategies ultimately boil down to two kinds: Martingale.
And reverse Martingale, which is to add positions against the trend and stubbornly hold until you blow up, versus adding positions with the trend and wrong stop-loss leading to blowing up.
Do you see? Any trading strategy, whether you do it the right way or the wrong way, can find a set of profitable logic that makes sense. Isn't that amazing?
This is trading. In fact, you can randomly pick a product with your eyes closed and randomly place an order, and the expected profit is always 50%, meaning a triangular balance between profit and loss ratio, win rate, and position size. No matter how hard you think, this triangular balance cannot be broken.
Technical analysis is even funnier. New and old investors especially love to find patterns in the market, or to put it in a more sophisticated way, find factors. But in reality, these so-called factors are just like thinking that stepping out with your left foot led to a romantic encounter today, and stepping out again with your left foot led to finding a wallet the next day. You think stepping out with your left foot is the secret to success in life, which is quite comical. In fact, this moving average, that trend line, as long as you like them, there will always be one that suits you.
As long as you adjust the various indicators, draw all the lines, straight lines, rays, and segments, you will eventually find the market's 'patterns (factors)'.
The conclusion is that for the vast majority of people, the trading strategies they master (assuming they have strategies) do not have a higher expected profit than betting big or small in Macau. In fact, due to fairness issues like information and capital, the expected profit from trading is likely to be much lower than that from betting in Macau.
That is to say, after exhausting ten years, you believe you will eventually find a trading holy grail that works every time, only to find that the end of this holy grail is betting big or small in Macau. Is it heartbreaking? Is it hard to bear?
The problem with betting big or small in Macau is that it comes too quickly; in one day, you can complete a lifetime's worth of losing trades, and you won’t even have time to deceive yourself.
Those impressive trading masters are no different from gamblers who go all-in on a single bet in Macau, where a single bet determines life and death. If you win, you are a master, writing books and giving speeches to profit off others; if you lose, you end up with nothing. It's just that betting in Macau gives you results too quickly, which isn't satisfying enough.
If you have time to study this trading nonsense, it’s better to run a few more food deliveries and spend the rest of your time playing games, which is more interesting.
However, turning the conversation, are there really trading strategies that can make money? Actually, there are:
The core essence comes down to three points:
1. The finiteness of life;
2. Feasting on the corpses of mantises that eat cicadas;
3. Make a little pocket money, don’t think you can get rich from this.
It's very clear; if you understand applause, great. If not, I don't want to elaborate. This is a truth that can only be understood after experiencing life and death many times!
