#sui 【$SUI Is it time for 'year-end bonuses'? The unlocking of 74 million tokens, is it a shower of red envelopes or a storm?】
Everyone, on May 1st at 8 AM Beijing time, Sui (SUI) will have a major 'token blind box opening' event—about 74 million tokens are about to be unlocked, equivalent to throwing down a $267 million 'cash gift' into the market! Is this a joyful celebration or a bearish warning? Let's break it down and chat.
1. The Great Unlocking Drama: The Truth Behind the $267 Million 'Air Drop'
1. How large is the unlocking scale? It’s like giving the market a big red envelope
Currently, Sui's circulating supply is 3.25 billion tokens, and the 74 million tokens being unlocked represent 2.28%, which is equivalent to having $100 in your wallet and suddenly gaining $2.28. In dollar terms, that's $267 million, not a small amount! But don't panic, Sui's daily trading volume reaches $3 billion, making this amount equivalent to 'pocket money' level, with solid market absorption.
2. Historical Unlocking Performance: The market is already accustomed to it
The unlocking of Sui is like 'payday', happening every few months. For example, when $263 million is unlocked in January 2025, the price only dropped by 2%; in February, when $203 million is unlocked, the fluctuation didn't exceed 3%. The market has long been accustomed to such 'routine operations', just like receiving your salary every month, you wouldn't wildly spend just because you got a few extra bucks, right?
3. Who is the unlocking entity? How will the foundation's funds be spent?
The tokens unlocked this time belong to the Sui Foundation, and their money is not spent casually. According to the official plan, these tokens are mainly used to support ecological development, such as funding developers and incubating new projects. It's like a company giving bonuses to encourage employee innovation, which is beneficial in the long run.
2. Market Impact: Short-term volatility vs Long-term bullish
1. Short Term: There might be small ripples, but no big waves
- Selling Pressure Risk: If the foundation or early investors rush to cash out, it could indeed lead to a market crash. However, the foundation's tokens are released in batches, and this time they may only sell a portion; moreover, Sui has strong liquidity, with a daily trading volume of $3 billion easily digesting $267 million in selling pressure.
- Emotional Fluctuations: Retail investors might panic and sell, but smart money will seize the opportunity to buy the dip. It's like buying groceries at the market; if prices drop suddenly, people rush to buy, and prices quickly rebound.
2. Long-term: Technical upgrades + ecological explosion, Sui is about to take off
- Mysticeti V2 Upgrade: Internet speed has changed from 4G to 5G
Sui's new consensus mechanism Mysticeti V2 has been launched, and the transaction confirmation speed is so fast that it completes in the blink of an eye, with TPS (transactions per second) skyrocketing to hundreds of thousands. It's like upgrading to a 5G plan for your phone, watching videos without any lag, making DeFi and gaming applications eager to settle down with Sui.
- Remora Expansion Plan: Unlimited scalability is not a dream
Previously, Sui's processing capability was like a single lane; now Remora has turned it into an eight-lane highway, allowing for smooth traffic regardless of the number of cars. In the future, even with a million users trading simultaneously, Sui can handle it easily, which is crucial for attracting major projects.
- Ecological Progress: From DeFi to NFT, Sui can do it all
Sui's DeFi locked value (TVL) has already exceeded $1.6 billion, and NFT trading volume is also surging, even reaching a partnership with the Trump family's crypto project. Even more impressively, Sui has launched the decentralized storage protocol Walrus, which is like giving the blockchain a 'super large hard drive', making storing data and conducting AI much more convenient in the future.
3. Investor Guide: Stay steady and find opportunities in crises
1. Short-term operations: Build positions in batches, don't be swayed by emotions
- Dollar-Cost Averaging Strategy: If you believe in Sui's long-term value, you can buy in batches after the unlocking to average your costs. Just like buying mutual funds, buy more when there's a big drop, and buy less when there's a small dip.
2. Long-term holding: Dual drivers of technology + ecology, Sui's potential is limitless
- Technical Moat: Sui's DAG consensus and Move language are naturally suited for high-performance applications, making it difficult for other public chains to replicate. Just like Apple's iOS system, as the ecosystem grows, user stickiness strengthens.
- Institutional Entry Signal: Canary Capital has submitted an SUI ETF application, and once approved, a significant amount of traditional funds will flow in. It's similar to a stock being included in an index, often leading to a price increase.
3. Risk Warning: Don't let FOMO cloud your judgment
- Market Volatility Risk: The cryptocurrency market is known for its volatility; even with a long-term bullish outlook, there might be short-term crashes. It's advisable to invest with spare cash and avoid leverage.
- Ecological Competitive Pressure: Although Sui is developing rapidly, public chains like Aptos and Solana are also making progress. Just like in the mobile market, Apple and Android are always competing, Sui needs to continue innovating to maintain its lead.
4. Conclusion: Let the bullets fly for a while on May 1st
This unlocking of Sui is like a 'stress test'; there may be fluctuations in the short term, but in the long term, technological upgrades and ecological explosions are the key factors determining the price. Just like playing a game, you might have to grind for gear in the early stages, but once you're at max level, you can easily take down bosses.
If you are a long-term investor, consider this unlocking as an "entry opportunity"; if you're a short-term player, remember to set your stop-loss and take-profit levels, and don't let market sentiment sway you. A final reminder: cryptocurrencies come with risks, invest cautiously, and see you next time!