The price trend of Bitcoin is generally showing sideways fluctuations, with prices oscillating within a certain range, currently around 94352.5. The market has shown significant patterns at multiple points, such as the bearish engulfing pattern, indicating potential short-term risks of decline.
In the short term, the market has just experienced a round of increases and is entering a consolidation phase. AO and MACD indicators suggest that the market may show signs of halting the decline and rebounding. However, the balance of buying and selling forces keeps the market in a wait-and-see state. Support and resistance levels indicate that current market sentiment remains optimistic and has strong upward momentum. Recommendation: Given that the market has recently remained in sideways fluctuations, there could be signs of adjustment and potential rebound opportunities in the short term.
Pay attention to the key support level at 93777 and the resistance level at 95768.6, especially the stability of the support level. If the price continues to rise, consider going long in the short term and setting appropriate stop-loss points.
[ETH may retract to 1650, otherwise it will lack the power to rise.]
ETH holders should have noticed that the recent strong performance of $ETH is due to ETF purchases. Market retail investors followed suit, which led to a forceful drop in prices that severely hurt E-Guardians' sentiments. However, things have changed since ETF purchases have stabilized prices, and ETH has begun to break previous highs, with a 24-hour increase of 3%, currently reported at $1846. I still hold the previous view; 1895 is a strong resistance level. A piercing top pattern has appeared on the daily chart (weaker than BTC), so it's best to reduce positions and consider re-entering around 1650.
As for the future of ETH, opinions vary. It's still worthwhile; just manage the risks well!
While reviewing, I suddenly realized an issue: if you, like me, bought $ETH at 1800 on April 5 and held without any actions, you would just now be breaking even.
The overall direction is betting on the 57 Ethereum upgrade and a rate cut in June. Currently, major bloggers across the network are unanimously bearish, and this consensus presents a problem. The current core focus in altcoins is:
1. There hasn't been much change at the macro level; trade negotiations are ongoing. If no agreement is reached by July, Trump has indicated that relevant tariff policies will continue.
2. Yesterday continued to welcome a rebound, with $Trump leading the meme resurgence. Currently, $pengu, $bonk, $tubo, and $pnut are showing relatively strong performances.
3. The AI sector is experiencing a rebound from overselling; $ai16z, $aixbt, $virtual, etc., have all shown significant rebounds. After a 3-month decline, the rise took less than a week.
4. On the Sol chain, there have been frequent occurrences of gold dogs recently. Yesterday, $house was very popular in the circle. This is a project that hedges against the real estate market, with a market value that had remained stable at around 7M, suddenly spiking yesterday, with FDV hitting over 55M.
5. BONK's new meme platform #lestbonk has seen its FDV shoot up to around 30M right after launch, currently at less than 10M. If there's short-term FOMO, make sure to take profits.
6. Stablecoin growth; USDT (14.7 billion) and USDC (62 billion) market values continue to rise, indicating capital inflow.
CEX operation: $alpaca utilizes contract rates settling negative 2% over one hour to drive up spot prices, forcing short squeezes.
A batch of established altcoins has already completed the full cycle of overbought - oversold in this round, with BSV being the most typical.
Interestingly, in this round of rebounds, many established coins have significantly outperformed ETH. #BCH rebounded by 54.62%, #BSV nearly 93.88%, #SOL rose by 42.67%, and #AAVE increased by 51.72%...
You can continue to pay attention to these leading established coins in the rotation...
Currently, we have experienced the worst macro environment, and we are now basically recovering. Once the market continues to adjust and fully restores confidence, the trend will shift from a rebound to a reversal.
If there is no rate cut in May, then a cut is likely in June. When combined with relevant tariff negotiations and other policies, the market will be primed to react. Therefore, May and June are good times to accumulate at lower prices.
Let me mention some targets that Old Chen finds promising:
Logic 1: Crypto has no community, only hotspots.
Logic 2: American politics and macroeconomics will be the main themes of this market trend.
Logic 3: Hotspots determine direction, while the number of large exchanges determines the liquidity base.
Logic 4: Trump and pnut.
The pros and cons of these two targets, Trump, are obvious. The advantage is the most direct relationship/clear main dealer; the disadvantage is that it's unclear how to strategize with this main dealer—whether to directly flood or pull back a bit before flooding. For safety considerations, I chose pnut.
Next Wednesday's PCE inflation data looks very bullish, with the market expecting PCE to drop sharply by 0.3% to 2.2% from the previous value, and the core PCE is also expected to plummet by 0.2% to 2.6%, both returning to normal levels.
This likely indicates the Federal Reserve's success in fighting inflation and the beginning of rate cuts, largely due to the crisis caused by tariff declines, which will greatly increase the probability of rate cuts. It's a case of turning misfortune into fortune.
Stay tuned to the homepage; the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut is crucial and signals the start of a bull market. Hope everything goes smoothly.
